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571
FXUS62 KGSP 281742
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
142 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region
through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the
region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our
east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 130 PM: Synoptic cold front and sfc trough now along
the Atlantic coast, with cyclonic upper flow over the eastern
CONUS. Weak inversion aloft should preclude any deep convection this
aftn, although shallow convective layer beneath that inversion will
permit a healthy cu field across much of the area, particularly near
the mountain spine where clouds may spill in from East TN. Ridging
will strengthen over the CWA tonight into Wed as upper trough makes
slight eastward progress. Continuing relatively dry westerly flow,
combined with diurnal mixing this aftn lowering crossover temp,
suggests minimal fog tonight despite fairly good radiational cooling
conditions; min temps will end up 2-3 degrees below normal. Ridge
should reinforce capping inversion and inhibit deep convection
again Wed. A shortwave rotating thru the trough will however
strengthen the low-level gradient; along with deeper mixing as a
result of lower dewpoints that suggests slightly windier conditions
Wed. Max temps however will trend down a couple degrees, returning
to about normal.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday: Broad cyclonic flow aloft will remain
overhead through much of the short-term period as cP surface high
shifts from the Upper Great Lakes region and sets up shop across the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas by Friday. Cyclonic flow aloft will shift
offshore later Friday as a steep upper ridge axis slowly builds in
from the west. Needless to say, the forecast will be warm and very
dry as dewpoints remain in the 40s and 50s across the CFWA. Enjoy
this now as this could be one of the last stretch of actual Spring
before we become entrenched with heat and high humidity for the
coming Summer months. Temperatures will be slightly below-normal
through the forecast period.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 237 AM Tuesday...Looks like we should get the first half
of the weekend with nice weather as a mid/upper ridge builds
in from the west, supporting high pressure, which keeps high
temps a few degrees below normal and low temps nicely cool
Friday night. However, the pattern is progressive and the model
guidance is consistent with moving the ridge axis overhead late
Saturday. Once that happens, weak sfc high pressure gets pushed
off the Carolina coast and moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico
will improve. Showers and thunderstorms could arrive as early as
Saturday night as a lead short wave is shown to ride up the ridge
from the west. Whether or not this takes the form of a dying MCS
remains to be seen, but that is plausible. Sunday begins a more
active period for us as we regain an air mass more favorable to
diurnal convection. Much beyond that, confidence remains low as
there is poor run-to-run consistency with how to handle the next
mid/upper trof to the west. Previous runs had a large cut-off
low and tonight`s runs bear little resemblance. Instead, we see
a series of short waves moving along in a more low amplitude
flow and a compact upper low somewhere not west of here. A common
theme is that we stay unsettled with diurnally driven or enhanced
convection, so a chance of precip will be kept for the early
part of the week. Temps climb back to a few degrees above normal,
while low temps have a more noticeable climb to something closer
to five above normal by Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR. Diurnal cu at 050-070 will be seen this
afternoon but are expected to remain too shallow to support precip,
beneath weak midlevel inversion. Winds prevailing in NW quadrant
with weak trough east of the region, but with overall gradient
weak some variability is expected. Low-end occasional gusts this
aftn. Although good radiational cooling conditions will be in place,
likely too dry tonight for fog/stratus. Approach of shortwave Wed
should permit deeper mixing and slightly better gust potential,
but precip chances still much too low to mention. This feature
could also allow KCLT to back to near due W, perhaps even WSW,
but not confident enough to advertise a switch this far out.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected to remain as drier weather prevails
through the end of the week.
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&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...Wimberley