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647
FXUS62 KGSP 260554
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
154 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures remain above normal through the holiday weekend. A
chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and into the overnight,
with a cold front bringing another chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Cooler and drier conditions return through
the end of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 142 AM EDT Sunday: All quiet across the fcst area for the
time being. Still some concern about fog thru daybreak, especially
over the mtns, but a cloud deck moving in quickly from the west
might keep the boundary layer warm enough to prevent the fog from
becoming widespread, or even forming at all.

Otherwise...a warm and humid airmass continues on Sunday as
convection across the Plains and Midwest gradually travels
east. This will likely generate an MCV that will slip into the OH
Valley, which will push south and east towards the CFWA according
to the CAMs. Deep layer shear won`t be great, but an increasing LLJ
(20-30 kts) with 40-50 kts of mid-level flow will begin to filter
in across the region late Sunday afternoon just as convection
gets into the region. A westerly component to the mid-level winds
will allow for some type of dry air entrainment. This will help to
create a damaging wind threat, especially if the convection grows
upscale and generates a decent cold pool. Best locations will be
the NC zones and the northern Upstate, but the timing may slip
into the beginning portions of the short-term, meaning that the
onset isn`t expected until after 18Z in the NC mountains before
pulling east across the rest of the CFWA. Afternoon highs should
be able to reach the upper 80s to near 90 as morning convection
is not expected, so there should be less cloud debris until peak
heating arrives and convection pops off.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM Sunday: Picking up Monday night, the upper low lifts
off toward the NE and any remaining boundary should be out of the
area by this time. A few lingering showers are depicted by the GFS
and EURO, but should dissipate overnight. The FROPA starts to allow
drier air to filter into the CWA, dropping the humidity a bit and
bringing temperatures closer to normal. Tuesday could see a stray
shower over the mountains during the daytime hours, however
confidence is very low given the decreased moisture availability.
Will keep unmentionable PoPs at this point. Temps will be warmest
Tuesday during the short term and decrease a tick or two closer to
climo by Wednesday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 200 AM Sunday: By Wednesday, a semi-strong omega blocking
pattern continues over the CONUS, leaving the CWA in a weak quasi-
zonal regime from the base of the trough to the north. Synoptically,
this will leave the area open for NW flow aloft through at least the
end of the work week. There could be some remnant moisture and
unsettled forcing exiting the area by Wednesday night with a chance
for precip, but confidence is low as models continue to trend drier.
After Wednesday night, the ridge axis from the central CONUS
propagates eastward toward the CWA and shunts rain chances with
strong subsidence aloft. By Saturday, the ridge axis should be over
the region, continuing quieter weather. Temperatures should remain
close to climo through the period as well.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will continue at all terminals
through the early morning hours, but there remains concern about
fog restrictions developing in the pre-dawn hours. Satellite
imagery shows the fog in the Little TN River valley, but the fog
development might be halted by the arrival of a cloud deck moving
in from the west before sunrise. We will monitor, but starting to
look like a lower threat at KAVL. For today, wind should remain
light S to SW. Scattered thunderstorms develop in the afternoon
hours so all terminals get a PROB30 for now until we can nail
down the timing with more certainty. Cloud debris after sunset
with storms dissipating. After that, our attention turns to the
west with the arrival of a line of storms well after midnight.

Outlook: A unsettled pattern will linger into the early part of
the week, allowing for diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances
each day and at least patchy fog development each night/morning.
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&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CAC/PM/TW
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM