-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
748
FXUS64 KHGX 201759
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Patchy fog will be possible once again later this morning, but not
expecting it to be quite as widespread or dense with surface
conditions being a little bit drier than previous nights. Locations
west of I-45 have the best chance of seeing fog development mainly
between the timeframe of 5-9AM.

Hot and dry conditions persist as we kick off the new work week, but
we`ll at least have a southerly breeze to work with. Latest surface
analysis shows an area of low pressure developing in the Texas
Panhandle. This`ll tighten the pressure gradient a bit leading to
southerly/southeasterly winds around 10 mph throughout the day.
We`re still going to see temperatures top out in the low 90s, but
90s with a breeze feels waaay better than the low 90s with no wind.
Heat index values will still be in the upper 90s though. That
onshore flow will come back to haunt us tomorrow with increasing
humidity leading to even higher heat index values. Temperatures
during the overnight hours will continue to be well above normal
with lows in the mid to upper 70s tonight and solidly in the upper
70s on Tuesday night.

We get even breezier on Tuesday as a shortwave trough pushing
through the Four Corners region generates another (and slightly
stronger) surface low on the lee-side of the Rockies. The deepening
of this surface low will lead to southeasterly winds around 15 mph
throughout the day. Being in the warm sector of this surface low
allows for moisture to increase even further. PW values will be in
the 1.3-1.7" range by Tuesday afternoon (75th percentile: ~1.60").
There will also be a 20-25 kt LLJ overhead and some upper level
diffluence, but with subsidence from the ridging aloft and a very
robust capping inversion aloft around 850mb...don`t expect to see
anything more than a higher percentage of cloud cover sticking
around through Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures will still top out in the low 90s Tuesday, but with the
added humidity it`ll feel like the triple digits! Heat index values
are expected to be in the 99-103F range, so heat safety must remain
a top priority. Be sure to drink plenty of water, take frequent
breaks, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part
of the day, know the signs of heat stroke/heat exhaustion, and
ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget
about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of
your hand, then it is too hot for their paws.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

With mid/upper level ridging situated to our south and southwest throughout
this period, there are some indications in a couple of the latest model
runs that we might have to keep an eye on possible shower/storm development
from around midweek and on into the weekend. The latest NBM continues
its dry trend with only low rain chances Thursday afternoon/evening,
and will stick with this for now. As has been advertised, the main concern
will be the heat. High temperatures will be in the 90s, and heat index
values will generally be in a 95 to 105 range (and possible getting
close to heat advisory values on Monday...a week from today). Little
relief will come overnight as morning lows by the end of the week and
especially over the weekend will range from the low to mid 70s up north
to the upper 70s to around 80 central and south. As exactly stated above
and for several days now...heat safety must remain a top priority. Be
sure to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, avoid strenuous
outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, know the signs
of heat stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before
you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the
ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for
their paws.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Mixture of VFR/MVFR CIGs this afternoon, courtesty of a Cu field
that is leading to BKN skies at GLS and FEW to SCT skies
elsewhere. Expect cloud cover to become more BKN to OVC at MVFR
levels tonight into Tuesday morning with a few hours of IFR CIGs
possible for some locations from 12-14Z Tuesday morning. Winds
will be 8-12 kts out of SE through tomorrow morning, with gusts to
20kts possible Tuesday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Light to mostly moderate onshore winds can be expected through
much of this week. Small craft may need to exercise caution at
times around midweek as the onshore flow increases and seas rise.

42

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, Brazos, and San
Jacinto rivers. The following river points are either currently in
flood stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Monday
morning):

MAJOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major

MODERATE//
----------
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate
- Brazos River (West Columbia): Moderate (forecast)

MINOR//
-------
- Navasota River (Normangee): Minor
- East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Minor
- West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Minor
- Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor
- Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor
- Brazos River (Richmond): Minor (forecast)

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat persists.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  74  91  76 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  91  75  91  77 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  84  78  85  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...42