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530
FXUS64 KHGX 260915
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
415 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

It`s been a pretty "rinse and repeat" forecast for the last few
days, and today`s forecast will continue the pattern of heat and
humidity as SE Texas remains under a broad area of high pressure
that is centered over Mexico. Daytime temperatures will continue to
top out in the low to mid 90s inland and in the 80s for the islands.
Dew point values in the mid to upper 70s will make today feel like
you are being wrapped in a hot and wet blanket...

Jokes aside, the combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat
index values reaching Advisory criteria (108 degrees and higher) for
much of SE Texas (with the exception of coastal counties and the
islands). Nighttime temperatures will not provide much relief from
the heat as temperatures lower into the 70s to around 80 degrees.
Heat index values at the time of this writing are in the upper 80s
to low 90s for much of the area. For this reason a Heat Advisory
will be in effect for this afternoon through Monday night.

Please remember to exercise caution with rising temperatures. Stay
hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the
day, never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles (even if
you plan to crack a window, it is too hot!). For pet owners,
remember, it is too hot for the palm of your hand, the ground is too
hot for your pets` paws.

In addition to the heat, there is the potential for isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms across portions of SE Texas Monday (looking
like best chances may be in the nighttime hours). SPC has placed an
area generally along and north of I-10 in a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5) for severe weather. A dry line will move into Central Texas
during the day Monday, at the 500mb level a few disturbances
embedded in the quasi-zonal flow will move through and provide
pockets of PVA. These storms would likely move in from Mexico and
push through Central Texas during the evening hours. Whether or not
the storms make it to SE Texas would largely depend on the erosion
of a pretty hefty capping inversion. If storms are able to break
through the cap, they will be met with CAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg,
LI values of around -10 to -14 (meaning a pretty volatile airmass is
in place), steep mid-level lapse rates, and decent amount of shear.
In layman`s terms, if storms overcome the cap, they would enter an
environment favorable for organized storms capable of producing
damaging winds (58 mph or greater) and large hail (1" or greater).

The greatest chance for thunderstorms would be in the western and
northern counties.

Once storms die down later on Monday night, expect partly to mostly
cloudy skies with lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees.

Finally, for those of you going to the beach, there is a high risk
of rip currents through the holiday weekend. Please swim near a
lifeguard and avoid swimming near rocks, piers and jetties as
this is where rip currents are more likely to form. If you find
yourself caught in a rip current, remember to wave, yell, and swim
parallel to the shore. In addition, don`t swim at the eastern or
western tips of Galveston Island. Tidal currents and rip currents
are always dangerous there. Galveston Beach Patrol made over a dozen
rescues yesterday and unfortunately we had one rip current
related drowning. The Beach Patrol is recommending adult
experienced swimmers only go no more than waist deep water - and
those non-swimmers with kids to stay on the beach.

Adams
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Unseasonably hot conditions will begin waning Tuesday as upper
ridging to our south begins losing a touch of its grip, heights
and H85/7 temps lower, and llvl winds trend more to the SE. A weak
backdoor front should be somewhat close to the region Tue (maybe
NE Tx and Ncntl La. Would anticipate some scattered tstm
development on its western periphery during the late afternoon/evening
hours. Better chances generally north of I-10 where the cap is
more likely to be overcome with any forcing. Eyes then turn to the
NW Tuesday night as a potential disturbance in the NW flow aloft
amplifies overnight into Wed with a possible MCS developing.

During the mid-late week time period, we should see another surge
of high pressure building SSE down the Midwest into the
Mississippi Valley. This well give the backdoor front a slightly
further westward push and some more recycled "drier" air into the
area. And by "drier" I mean temps/dewpoints trending back to near
normal.

With low level southeast flow in place we should still have plenty
of moisture available to fuel some shra/tstms. Some ridging aloft
won`t exactly make things ideal, but isolated-scattered diurnally
driven precip looks to be a decent bet...especially the further
inland from the coast one gets. Guidance still projecting a fairly
active NW flow aloft with embedded disturbances possibly enhancing
or generating another MCS or two upstream that`ll need to be
monitored. Confidence as to when/where remains low, but overall
pattern is somewhat favorable in regards to the possibility. 47
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&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Another night with SCT to OVC MVFR conditions is expected across
all terminals through mid/late morning. Then, VFR conditions can
be expected through the remainder of the period. Winds will
generally remain from the south- southeast at around 10 to 15
knots. Gusts up to 25 knots can be expected in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Moderate south winds and 4 to 6 foot seas are expected through
tonight. Conditions are hovering around SCA criteria so will keep
those flags flying into at least mid morning and give the day crew
another look at things. Speeds should slightly diminish this
afternoon, but small craft are still urged to use caution this
holiday weekend. Winds and seas decrease somewhat on Monday and
Tuesday. During the second half of the week, a longer fetch of
moderate southeast winds set up across the Gulf. Look for
winds/seas to bump back up into SCEC territory.

Beach Hazards Statement has been extended through the remainder of
Memorial Day holiday for above normal surf and a high risk of rip
currents. 47
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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College Station (CLL)  94  76  96  74 /  10   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)  94  78  98  76 /  10  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  80  88  79 /   0  10   0   0
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&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370-375.
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&&

$$