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950
FXUS66 KHNX 222056
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
156 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Strong, gusty west winds are expected in the Mojave Desert
Slopes this afternoon into early Thursday morning.

2. A cooling trend is anticipated Thursday through Saturday.

3. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada
Friday afternoon.

4. Strong, gusty west winds are conceivable in the Mojave Desert
Slopes each afternoon and evening Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

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Northwest flow continues over the Golden State this afternoon as
a dominate upper low is dropping through the central Columbia
River Basin. The upper low opens a little into a trough as it
crosses the Great Basin overnight and this time on Thursday is
over the Northern Rockies. Northwest flow continues with lower
heights. This should bring temperatures down a few degrees from
this afternoon`s maximums. On Thursday the probabilistic
forecast for PoE of 90*F falls below 20% for the San Joaquin
Valley, however in the Kern County desert Edwards AFB has a 36%
and China Lake NAF 81%. The Mojave Slope wind advisory continues
for the region. The Bakersfield to Vegas pressure gradient is at
6 millibars (MB) this afternoon and weakens to 4 MB overnight.
The thermal trough lines up fairly well with the Colorado River
along the NV/CA/AZ boarder. The PoE of 45 mph is near 100% from
Highway 58 and 14 intersection near the town of Mojave extending
north along Highway 14 to Ridgecrest. The probability nears zero
by California City and Edwards AFB.

On Friday a little stronger waves moves through the the
Northwest flow aloft. This brings the slim probability of
thunder to the Sierra crest and leeward side with very limited
convective energy to the work with. The probability of thunder
at the highest elevations is only 5% to 15%. The highlight is
the continued drop in heights that will help nudge the
temperatures down to near 30 year normals for the region. The
PoE of 85*F, as a proxy for normal, roughly ranges from 10% to
40%. Only China Lake NAF increases PoE to 86%. On the Mojave
Slope Winds, the probabilities decrease down 25% to 45% for PoE
of 45 mph.

Saturday northwest flow continues as the main energy kicks into
the Great Basin. The probability of thunder drops below 5% for
the Sierra crests. Temperatures continue to tweak down again
with PoE of 80*F coming in in the range of 35% to 55% for the
San Joaquin Valley and 50% to 90% for the Kern County Desert.

Sunday the flow starts to back to the west in the upper levels
and the cooling trend comes to an end. The PoE of 85*F increases
to 30% to 60% for the San Joaquin Valley and 80% to near 100%
for the Kern County Desert.

Monday through next Thursday the flow continues West to
Southwest aloft featuring rising upper heights each day. This
bring temperatures back above normal into the 90s. The chart
below will provide the PoE of 90*F to feature the trend of the
increasing temperatures. On the probability of thunder, the
Sierra Crests remain below a 5% probability throughout the
period.

PoE of 90*F

Location         Mon     Tue     Wed    Next Thu
Merced           46%     56%     61%       56%
Madera           46%     61%     61%       56%
Fresno           61%     71%     71%       66%
Reedley          36%     56%     61%       51%
Lemoore NAS      36%     56%     61%       61%
Hanford          56%     71%     66%       66%
Visalia          61%     71%     66%       66%
Porterville      46%     66%     66%       61%
Delano           61%     76%     71%       66%
Bakersfield      61%     76%     66%       66%
Edwards AFB      86%     81%     86%       86%
China Lake NAF   91%    >99%    >99%      >99%
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&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across Central California through at
least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
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ISSUED:  05/21/2024 14:48
EXPIRES: 05/22/2024 23:59
None.
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&&

.CERTAINTY...

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The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
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&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Wind Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ338.
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&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...Proton
DSS....DS

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