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299
FXUS64 KMOB 261725
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1225 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the first 12 hours of the
forecast. Scattered low clouds will likely impact the terminals
through the afternoon; however, cigs below 3000 ft should be
relatively short-lived. Winds will be gusty at times this
afternoon and then subside shortly after sunset. A higher
confidence in low clouds exists for early Monday morning, as MVFR
cigs move into the area. These low clouds will linger through the
mid morning hours, with VFR conditions returning by the afternoon.
/73
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&&

.NEAR TERM...
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(Now through Monday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Dry and warm conditions expected today as the upper ridge
amplifies over the area. Strong subsidence under the ridge will
act to suppress shower and storm development. Monday will be more
active as the ridge flattens and an upper trough moves across the
Mississippi River Valley. An associated front will move into the
area during the afternoon with an increase in the coverage of
showers and storms. The increased lift and shear in the vicinity
of front will lead to the potential of strong or isolated severe
storms. The main threat will be gusty winds and hail in the
stronger storms. SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe storms for
much of the area Monday afternoon for this threat.

Today and Monday will remain hot. Daytime highs will warm into
the upper 80s along the coast to lower 90s further inland. Max
heat index values today will near 100 degrees, but should remain
below the triple digits for most of the area. Heat index values on
Monday will climb into the 100-105 range across much of the area.
/13

SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The boundary may stall just south of the coastline on Tuesday,
which would keep isolated chances for thunderstorms in the
afternoon hours. There remain a great deal of uncertainty as to
how far south and how quickly the front is able to reach, so will
maintain isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the
boundary is expected to have dissipated with high pressure and
upper ridging building back into the area. This will bring hot and
dry conditions back to the region, with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s. /73
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile      75  89  72  93  68  91  68  88 /   0  30  10  20  10  10  10  10
Pensacola   77  88  75  92  71  90  70  88 /   0  20  20  10  10  10  10  10
Destin      77  86  76  89  72  88  71  87 /   0  20  20  10  10  10  10  10
Evergreen   72  91  68  92  64  91  63  88 /  10  50  30  10  10  10  10  10
Waynesboro  73  93  68  92  65  89  64  88 /  20  40  20  10  10  10  10  10
Camden      72  90  67  89  64  88  63  86 /  10  50  20  10  10  10  10  10
Crestview   71  90  70  94  65  92  64  90 /   0  40  20  10  10  10  10  10
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&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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