-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
660
FXUS64 KMRX 291739
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
139 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Made some minor tweaks to the forecast grids this morning. Cluster
of clouds is moving across northern Tennessee this morning.
Temperatures had been several degrees warmer than guidance and
forecast and were rebounding strongly in the morning Sun. These
clouds will move across the area over the next couple of hours,
with mostly sunny skies resuming thereafter. Temperatures today
will be in the mid 70s into the low 80s from north to south, and
will overall be a pleasant weather day. The remainder of the
forecast, with the notes from the morning discussion, are still on
track for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Key Message:

Mostly sunny skies and generally pleasant weather expected again
today with a slim chance for showers in southwest Virginia.

Discussion:

Currently there are a few passing clouds across the southern
Appalachians, and quiet weather will continue across the region.
Expect to see some very patchy fog early this morning in the low
lying areas and river valleys, but any fog will quickly burn off
shortly after sunrise. Today will see similar conditions to what we
experienced yesterday, with temperatures and dew point values
expected to be slightly lower than yesterday with the more
northwesterly winds bringing in cooler and drier air.

We`ll still be sitting at the base of the trough extending up into
the Great Lakes region and there is enough energy on the southern
edge to see rain chances over KY/WV/VA today. Can`t completely rule
out seeing a brief shower over southwest VA today, but most people
will remain dry with only an uptick in cloud coverage as the primary
impact. Cool air continues to flow into the region after the sun
sets and colder temperatures are expected overnight with some of the
tops of the mountains in the southern Appalachians dipping into the
40`s before sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather will continue through at least Friday with highs a
few degrees below normal.

2. Chances for showers and thunderstorms start to creep back into
the region starting Saturday afternoon. Rain chances to continue
into early next week.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a trough will be over the East Coast bringing
northwest flow overhead until a ridge builds in on Friday. On
Saturday afternoon, a more chaotic pattern moves in with a couple of
shortwaves likely to move through the region through Monday. At the
surface, high pressure is over the region until a low moves into the
Central Mississippi Valley on Saturday. As this low tracks
northeast, it does not look like a clean frontal passage for our
region. The front does come close enough to bring showers and storms
and that boundary may even linger for a bit in the Sunday through
Monday timeframe.

Dry weather will continue through Saturday morning. By Saturday
afternoon, low chances for showers and thunderstorms start to
return. Rain chances will continue through Monday or Tuesday as the
boundary lingers. Best chance for showers and storms will be during
max heating but with these synoptic features, activity could pop up
at anytime. The weekend will likely not be a complete wash out but
you can expect a few passing showers and storms through at least
Monday maybe into Tuesday. Forecast rainfall totals through Tuesday
are currently around one inch or less.

Slightly below normal temps are expected through Friday with lows in
the 50s and highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Temps will be closer
to normal from Saturday forward.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR TAFs through the period, winds should gust 15 to 25 knots
across most or much of the valley this afternoon before weakening
and shifting this evening. Spotty light showers are possible again
from now until early tonight, but low level dry air preventing
most rain precludes mention in the TAFs. Patchy fog near TRI is
possible between 09z and 12z, but as of now not expecting any VIS
restrictions at TRI.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Chattanooga Airport, TN             58  80  58  82 /   0  10  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  77  54  79 /   0   0  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       53  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              50  73  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wellington
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...Wellington