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987
FXUS64 KOHX 180729
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
229 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Plenty of low level moisture and calm winds are allowing for
fog development across the area this morning. Any patchy dense fog
has been short lived up to this point and with passing clouds and
some showers developing over the next few hours, we`ll continue
to see intermittent reduced visibilities. Today is expected to be
another rainy day with a better potential of thunderstorms from
mid morning through early evening. Surface CAPE values will likely
work their way toward 1500 j/kg later this morning, but bulk shear
is expected to remain low (around 20 knots). We could see storms
develop and become strong with gusty winds and heavy rainfall,
especially south of I-40 where in instability is highest for a
longer period of time today. Storm chances will last through most
of the evening over our most southeastern counties. As the upper
wave passes to our east tonight storms will disappear, but stray
showers may continue into Sunday over the Cumberland Plateau.
Other than those few sprinkles, Sunday should be a really nice day
to be outside.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Ridging builds in on Sunday night and sets us up for a dry start
to the work week. Temperatures will remain warm Monday and
Tuesday, with highs in mid to upper 80s. Heading into Wednesday a
strengthening surface low will drag a cold front through the mid
Mississippi Valley, threatening Middle TN with showers and storms
as early as Wednesday morning. But this low speeds north of the
Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon leaving a weak boundary draped
to our west..or maybe right on top of us. It`s still a little too
early to be certain. That boundary will linger around the area
through Friday when a shortwave may finally swing by and push it
east. So we`ll keep a chance of showers and storms in the forecast
from Wednesday into the weekend for now.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Low clouds have started to build into the area and we will see
MVFR/IFR cigs overnight. We will also see patchy fog at times.
Cigs will start to rise tomorrow morning and should return to VFR
levels by the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop late morning and continue into the afternoon. Shower
activity will diminish during the evening. Light northerly winds
under 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Nashville      77  63  86  64 /  80  20  10   0
Clarksville    78  61  85  62 /  70  10   0   0
Crossville     73  58  79  57 /  90  40  20   0
Columbia       77  61  84  61 /  90  30  10   0
Cookeville     75  60  81  59 /  90  30  10   0
Jamestown      72  58  80  57 /  90  40  10   0
Lawrenceburg   77  61  83  62 /  90  30  10   0
Murfreesboro   78  61  85  61 /  80  30  10   0
Waverly        77  61  85  62 /  80  20   0   0
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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Whitehead
LONG TERM....Whitehead
AVIATION.....Mueller