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424
FXUS65 KPUB 160921
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
321 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 
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- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected late this
   morning through the afternoon, mainly over and near the
   higher terrain.

 - Isolated to scattered showers expected each day, though
   mostly along the mountains, for the end of the week and
   through the weekend.

 - Showers remain possible through the first half of next week,
   though mostly along the mountains.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Issued at 318 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

A fair amount of low and mid level moisture still in place early
this morning, with surface observation data indicating dew points
well into the mid to upper 40s in place across the plains with even
some of this higher dewpoint air pushing into portions of the
mountains and mountain valleys. Some weak upslope flow still in
place is keeping low stratus and isolated light showers over and
near the terrain, while mid/high clouds stream overhead. Latest
radar imagery is showing limited precip development and this is
likely owing to the region situated in a baggy/weak flow aloft, with
mid/upper trough to the southwest of the region. Expect this to
continue to be the case for much of the early morning hours, once
again, precip development limited.

Most areas will likely start the day at least partly cloudy to
partly sunny, given upstream moisture moving overhead. By mid to
late morning, secondary upper trough axis pivots overhead and while
low to mid level flow backs to more of a steadier easterly
component. This should support blossoming showery development over
and near the higher terrain by late morning, with this trend
continuing into early afternoon. Building instability will once
again support CAPE values generally in the 250-750 j/kg range today,
support another day of scattered storms. However, forecast soundings
indicating this CAPE is more of the tall and skinny CAPE, and likely
not supportive of any strong to severe storm development today.
Additionally, flow is rather weak. That being said, given the higher
moisture and this instability in place, think brief heavy downpours
and maybe some brief gustier winds would likely accompany any
thunderstorm. As focus for precip development mainly stays over/near
the higher terrain and more so along and south of Highway 50, think
areas to the north and then much of the plains should see a little
more sun today than previous thought. So, did increase high temps a
few degrees in these areas. Precip development will quickly end
early this evening as upper trough shifts south, and as drier air
filters in.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 318 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Friday - Sunday: Some active weather is expected for the end of the
week and through the weekend for south central and southeastern
Colorado. Overall, westerly flow is expected as the region sits
within the northern periphery of a ridge to the south. With this
pattern, mostly dry conditions are anticipated, with the exception
being isolated showers along the mountains given the westerly flow.
Along with that though, a cold front Saturday, and a disorganized
shortwave Sunday, are expected to help initiate additional showers.
The front will increase shower coverage across the plains during
Saturday afternoon, with the short wave increasing shower coverage
along the mountains Sunday afternoon, particularly along the central
mountains. With that all said though, any showers present each
afternoon will dissipate during the evening as diurnal instability
wanes. Looking at temperatures, a warmer stretch of days is
expected, even despite the minor cold front Saturday. Much of the
region will warm to above seasonal temperatures.

Monday - Wednesday: For the first half of next week, active weather
is anticipated for the area. Troughing will start to increase over
the area, bringing strong forcing, and increased precipitation
chances. The highest chances for showers at this time are along the
mountains, where forcing will be greatest. While there will be
chances for showers across the eastern plains, there is a relatively
clear signal in ensemble QPF fields that much of the plains will
mostly be dry slotted with this pattern. And with the drier and
windier conditions, critical fire weather concerns will increase,
though recent moisture and Spring greenup will likely limit fire
growth potential. As for temperatures, a varied range is
anticipated. Monday will be the warmest as the troughing remains
just enough west, and Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler as the
system passes and shoves a cold front southward.
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&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 318 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions and dry weather are in place early this morning, with
mid and high clouds continuing to stream overhead. This trend will
continue for most of the morning, but with scattered showers and
thunderstorms once again developing late in the morning through the
afternoon hours. Do think most of this development will stay
confined to mainly the higher terrain. A few showers may spill into
the mountain valleys, and think the current VCSH for ALS is still
valid at this time. Can`t rule out an isolated shower across COS,
but think chances are low at this time, and with chances even lower
for PUB. Precip diminishes by early this afternoon, and with
clearing skies likely for tonight. Winds will be light today, and
more diurnally driven through the period.
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&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ