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081
FXUS62 KRAH 280614
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
214 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area later tonight and early
Tuesday. Another dry front moves through the area late Wednesday,
followed by high pressure building in for the latter half of the
week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 811 PM Monday...

The Tornado Watch has been cancelled early for our CWA as the
thunderstorm activity have moved northeast. A few isolated showers
are possible through early evening over the NW Piedmont, otherwise
dry conditions expected through the night. Skies will slowly clear
west to east overnight with temperatures ranging from mid 60s NW to
low 70s across the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 150 AM Tuesday...

An upper level trough will amplify as it shifts eastward into the
mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. A couple of shortwaves will move through
the area as they traverse the base of the upper trough, one early
Wed, the other Wed night/early Thu. At the surface, the cold front
should finally be east of central NC and offshore by Wed morning,
however a lee trough may briefly develop in the wake of the front
over the area during the day Wed. A dry, reinforcing cold front
should move through Wed night, pushing the trough offshore as cool
high pressure ridges in from the WNW. Highs Wed should be a category
or two below normal, ranging from mid 70s north to low/mid 80s
south. Lows Wed night in the low 50s north to around 60 degrees
south expected.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 210 AM Tuesday...

The upper level trough will amplify as a strong s/w swings through
the northern mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, with the parent trough
progressing eastward through the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Thu/Thu
night. The trough should shift east and offshore on Fri, with the
sub-tropical ridge progressing eastward toward the region through
Fri night. The ridge will slowly progress eastward through the area
Sat/Sat night. Meanwhile to the west, a s/w trough will move
eastward through the MS Valley Fri night/Sat, then continue eastward
through the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic Sat night/Sun. Another s/w
will follow behind it, however the model guidance varies wrt timing
and track. At the surface, cool high pressure will gradually
progress esewd through the Great Lakes and OH Valley Thu/Fri, then
slide sewd through the mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and offshore Sat/Sat
night. As the high continues to drift eastward over the Atlantic,
southerly return flow will once again advect warm, moist air into
the area through early next week. For now, expect largely dry
weather through Sat night, with chances for precipitation returning
for Sun and Mon. Temperatures should be near to below normal through
the remainder of the forecast period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 AM Tuesday...

RWI will likely bounce around between 2-3SM while thin cirrus
spreads in from the southwest. Timing the upper level clouds to move
out to TEMPO LIFR fog given recent observations and saturated ground
from moderate rainfall yesterday afternoon. Latest guidance shows a
tongue of patchy fog and low stratus developing over upstate SC into
the southern Piedmont of NC towards daybreak, but should remain
south of the Triad terminals (GSO/INT) as dew points have already
dropped into the low/mid 60s. A cold front will move through the
area through the early morning hours with a NW wind shift at all
terminals by 13z. Surface winds will increase to around 10 kts with
gusts up to 15-20 kts possible during the afternoon. Showers and
isolated storms may form along the seabreeze this afternoon, but
should remain southeast of FAY.

Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions should persist through Saturday as
dry high pressure wedges in.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Swiggett/Green