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440
FXUS61 KRLX 270953
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
553 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms through Memorial Day in response to a cold
front. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours
will be possible. Remaining unsettled Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 550 AM Monday...

Sent a quick update to cancel Tornado watch for portions of
northeast KY and southwest VA. Radar imagery shows convection
associated with previous watch has diminished in intensity and
coverage. Only scattered showers and general thunderstorms are
noted, exiting the eastern mountains during the predawn hours.
Although, continued with chance PoPs, expect a lull in
precipitation during the morning and early afternoon hours,
before the next batch of convection associated with a passing
cold front materializes. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 252 AM Monday...

Key Points:

 * A Tornado Watch remains in effect for Carter and Lawrence
   counties in Kentucky, and Dickenson county in southwest
   Virginia through 6 AM.
 * A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms remains in place
   through tonight.

Convection will continue to diminish in coverage and intensity
across the area this morning. Hi-res CAMs suggest a lull in
precipitation activity Monday morning through Monday afternoon.
However, a cold front will arrive to the Middle OHio valley this
afternoon triggering once again strong to severe thunderstorms. The
afternoon environment is characterized by high CAPE about 2,800
J/Kg, bulk shear about 30 knots, PWATs reaching 1.2 inches and low
SRHs about 100 m2/s2. An upper level shortwave will pass over the
area this afternoon, providing upper level forcing to the ongoing
convection. Local soundings show a somewhat fatter CAPE feature
under very dry air aloft during the peak heating hours. This
environment can sustain strong to severe updrafts/downdrafts capable
to produce damaging winds and large hail. SPC keeps most of the area
under Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
hail being the main threats. A slight risk exists over the northeast
mountains. WPC maintains a slight risk for excessive rainfall
roughly across the eastern half of the area today. Therefore,
isolated severe storms and localized flash flooding will be possible
on Monday.

Near normal temperatures are expected this afternoon, generally in
the lower 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s higher elevations
of our northeast mountains. Lows tonight will generally be in the
50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* Showers and storms expected at times through Wednesday.
* Temperatures turn cooler for the middle of the week.

Several shortwaves pivoting through an upper level trough are
expected to facilitate periods of showers and thunderstorms through
the middle of the week.

Precipitation chances seep into the CWA from the north as the first
shortwave brushes by on Tuesday. A lull in precipitation could then
be possible late Tuesday before the next wave crosses the area
Wednesday into Wednesday night. While precipitation chances are
expected to overspread the area during the day, the greatest
probability for showers and storms should reside across the northern
half of the area. Severe storms are not currently anticipated for
Tuesday or Wednesday.

High temperatures are expected to range from mid to upper 70s in the
lowlands and 60s to low 70s along the mountains on Tuesday.
Wednesday should be slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s in the lowlands and mid 50s to upper 60s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* High pressure begins to build into the area, resulting in
  quieter weather late this week.
* Gradual warming trend should take hold late week into the weekend.

Surface high pressure starts building into the region from the
northwest on Thursday and then strengthens its grip on Friday,
resulting in a quieter conclusion to the work week.

High pressure and the presence of an upper ridge should allow
benign weather to continue on Saturday. Confidence on the
forecast for the second half of the weekend remains low due to
model discrepancies. One solution shows a shortwave bringing
precipitation chances back into the area, while another
maintains drier conditions beneath upper ridging until Monday.
For the present, have used a model blend that reintroduces
slight chance to chance PoPs Saturday night into Sunday.

Temperatures are expected to start out slightly cooler than normal
on Thursday, then a warming trend takes hold and buoys temperatures
above normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 132 AM Monday...

A line of convection will affect HTS and PKB by 06-08Z,
spreading east affecting CRW by 08-10Z with heavy rain, and
strong gusty winds. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are expected
along this activity through the overnight hours. Precipitation
behind the convective line becomes more stratiformed but steady.
MVFR/IFR ceilings could remains behind this line through 12Z
Monday morning. Models suggest a lull in precipitation Monday
morning into the early afternoon hours. But, unstable
conditions, and the passage of an upper level wave will bring
back showers and storms during the peak heating hours.

Guidance suggest LLWS developing from 08Z through 12Z overnight
tonight. Coded LLWS at most sites accordingly.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorms at determined
sites may vary by an hour at HTS, PKB and CRW. Amendments will
likely be needed later for weather restrictions, overnight into
early Monday morning, and then again Monday afternoon.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 05/27/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARJ