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355
FXUS61 KRLX 270656
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
256 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms through Memorial Day in response to a cold
front. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours
will be possible. Remaining unsettled Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 252 AM Monday...

Key Points:

 * A Tornado Watch remains in effect for Caster and Lawrence
   counties in Kentucky, and Dickenson county in southwest
   Virginia through 6 AM.
 * A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms remains in place
   through tonight.

Convection will continue to diminish in coverage and intensity
across the area this morning. Hi-res CAMs suggest a lull in
precipitation activity Monday morning through Monday afternoon.
However, a cold front will arrive to the Middle OHio valley this
afternoon triggering once again strong to severe thunderstorms. The
afternoon environment is characterized by high CAPE about 2,800
J/Kg, bulk shear about 30 knots, PWATs reaching 1.2 inches and low
SRHs about 100 m2/s2. An upper level shortwave will pass over the
area this afternoon, providing upper level forcing to the ongoing
convection. Local soundings show a somewhat fatter CAPE feature
under very dry air aloft during the peak heating hours. This
environment can sustain strong to severe updrafts/downdrafts capable
to produce damaging winds and large hail. SPC keeps most of the area
under Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
hail being the main threats. A slight risk exists over the northeast
mountains. WPC maintains a slight risk for excessive rainfall
roughly across the eastern half of the area today. Therefore,
isolated severe storms and localized flash flooding will be possible
on Monday.

Near normal temperatures are expected this afternoon, generally in
the lower 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s higher elevations
of our northeast mountains. Lows tonight will generally be in the
50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1137 AM Sunday...

Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will remain possible
Tuesday and Wednesday with shortwave energy flowing around the base
of a 500-mb trough. Areas with the best chance at seeing showers
will be in northern parts of the area and in the mountains. Severe
weather is not anticipated at this time.

For both Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will be a bit lower
than recent days with highs only in the 70s in the lowlands and the
upper 60s to 70s in the mountains. Wednesday night might even feel
chilly to some with temperatures dropping into the 40s and lower 50s
for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1137 AM Sunday...

The long term forecast period looks largely dry with high pressure
building into the region from the west. Temperatures will remain
comfortably cool Thursday and Friday with highs in the 70s for most.
The summer-like warmth will return next weekend as high pressure
slides east and southerly flow returns. There is a slight
chance of showers or thunderstorms Saturday with 500-mb
shortwave energy approaching from the west, but confidence is
low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 132 AM Monday...

A line of convection will affect HTS and PKB by 06-08Z,
spreading east affecting CRW by 08-10Z with heavy rain, and
strong gusty winds. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are expected
along this activity through the overnight hours. Precipitation
behind the convective line becomes more stratiformed but steady.
MVFR/IFR ceilings could remains behind this line through 12Z
Monday morning. Models suggest a lull in precipitation Monday
morning into the early afternoon hours. But, unstable
conditions, and the passage of an upper level wave will bring
back showers and storms during the peak heating hours.

Guidance suggest LLWS developing from 08Z through 12Z overnight
tonight. Coded LLWS at most sites accordingly.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorms at determined
sites may vary by an hour at HTS, PKB and CRW. Amendments will
likely be needed later for weather restrictions, overnight into
early Monday morning, and then again Monday afternoon.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 05/27/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ