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629
FXUS62 KTBW 240833
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
433 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 433 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Hot and dry ridging at the surface and aloft will allow temps to
reach into the lower 90s near the coast and mid 90s inland with
some pockets of upper 90s. Light E/SE flow to start the day,
turning westerly in the afternoon and increasing to 10-15 mph and
gusty along the coast. Be sure to continue practicing safe heat
practices like staying hydrated, wearing sunscreen and light
colored clothing.

Ridge axis shifts south for the weekend, with W/NW flow in place.
A few showers and storms will be possible inland on Saturday
afternoon as an upper shortwave moves over the state, other wise
it remains hot and dry. A weak frontal boundary moves through the
area Tuesday through Wednesday, with 20-40 percent chances of
storms as it moves through. Temperatures will remain warm, with
lower to mid 90s each afternoon.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 433 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Light winds will increase from the SE before turning to the SW/W
in the early afternoon and increasing to around 10-12kts, then NW
in the evening, and gradually becoming light and variable after
02z. VFR conditions expected through the period.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 433 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

SE flow turning onshore this afternoon near the coast. Winds shift
to the west then for the weekend as the ridge axis shifts south. A
weak cold front will push into the area Tuesday, with a few
showers and storms possible. Conditions otherwise remain dry.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 433 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Hot and dry conditions continue today, with a few small pockets of
critical humidities possible inland, but RHs generally remaining
above 35 percent. A few storms possible inland for Saturday later
afternoon, otherwise dry through Monday with highs in the lower to
mid 90s.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TPA  92  77  91  76 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  95  76  94  74 /  10  10  10   0
GIF  96  73  96  73 /  10  10  10   0
SRQ  93  74  91  74 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  94  69  94  69 /  10   0  10   0
SPG  92  78  89  78 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming