-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
671
FXUS64 KBRO 020512 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1212 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

*Above normal high and low temperatures
*Best chance for rain on Saturday

An upper level ridge will continue to be the driving force for the
weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The
subsidence from the ridge along with the onshore flow will support
greater than normal temperatures with highs in the range of the
upper 90s for the coastal regions and triple digits for the rest of
the area. Another effect of the onshore flow will be the transport
of low-level moisture to the region that will increase the humidity
in the area as well. This will further drive up the heat indices for
the short term period, as such, the heat indices are expected to be
in the range of 108 to 114 for tomorrow. However, the need for a
Heat Advisory for tomorrow is questionable at best. Current model
analysis does not show the heat indices being elevated long enough
to warrant a Heat Advisory being needed, however a Special Weather
Statement might be issued instead. Low temperatures will continue to
be elevated for this time as well. With low temperatures in the low
80s for tonight and tomorrow night.

The presence of the ridge will continue to bring plenty of dry air
and stability to the atmosphere that will hinder the development of
showers and thunderstorms. At this time, short term forecast period
appears to be rain free for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley.

For those going to the beach, a High Risk of Rip Currents is
currently in effect, but is expected to shift to a Moderate Risk
tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The 500mb ridge of high pressure builds and works into West Texas
through the long term, continuing to bake Deep South Texas through
the week, as a persistent and potent trough continues much cooler
weather across the Great Lakes and Northeast. The chance of rain
remains generally below 15 percent through the long term, except
around 15 percent for Zapata County Monday evening, with a weak
mid-level disturbance potentially helping some Sierra Madre
convection flare up. May see one or two storms again pop up across
the border Tuesday and Wednesday nights as well, with limited
rain chances across the brush country.

Otherwise, expect heat to increase and breezy winds continuing
into Monday but gradually dissipating and dropping off to light or
nearly calm by the end of the week as the ridge of high pressure
moves northwest. Overnight lows remain generally in the 80s across
the Rio Grande Valley, offering very little recovery from
conditions. Heat Advisories will be most likely Tuesday and
Wednesday, but may be needed nearly every afternoon in some
capacity. Some drier air arriving late week into the weekend may
help keep most Heat Indices below 110.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Conditions at the TAF sites are MVFR due to ceilings. Winds are
moderate southeast. Ceilings will continue through early to mid
morning when southeast winds will become breezy, scattering out
low clouds through the afternoon if not evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Tonight through Sunday Night...High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico
and a thermal low over Central Mexico will continue to generate an
enhanced pressure gradient over the Lower Texas Coast. This will
support light to moderate southeasterly winds and moderate seas
through Sunday night. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are
likely through the period and some Small Craft Advisories cannot be
ruled out tomorrow for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters.

Monday through Saturday...Breezy southeasterly winds will maintain
elevated seas and Small Craft Caution to potentially Small Craft
Advisory conditions across the coastal waters, especially the
nearshore Gulf and Laguna Madre into Tuesday. As high pressure
builds into West Texas through the week, expect winds to gradually
diminish, allowing seas to subside into late week, with generally
favorable marine conditions returning to the lower Texas coast
into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
BROWNSVILLE             95  82  95  82 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               98  80  97  80 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                100  82 100  82 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY        102  81 102  80 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  82  87  82 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  81  93  81 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
TX...None.
GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...54-BHM