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693
FXUS62 KCAE 280621
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
221 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this evening
until a cold front moves through the region. More seasonable
temperatures and drier conditions are expected behind the front
through late week as high pressure area builds in from the upper
Mississippi Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Regional radar showing some scattered convection moving
northeastward across the Coastal Plain brushing the eastern
Midlands counties while the cold front remains to our west
early this morning in the Upstate. The front should continue to
push southeastward through sunrise and reach the Coastal Plain
by this afternoon. Goes derived total precipitable water shows
values at or above 1 inch across the forecast area but values
drop off behind the front and the drier air should be moving
over the area through the day behind the front as 850mb winds
shift more west-northwesterly. Upper trough axis is also to our
west currently and will cross the forecast area this afternoon.
Hi-res guidance suggests isolated showers or storms may develop
in the vicinity of the front over the Coastal Plain during peak
heating but most of the activity is expected to be east of our
forecast area, though cannot rule out an isolated shower over
the eastern Midlands where deeper moisture may be lingering with
some instability present, but generally expecting a rain free
day. There is not much cool air behind the front initially and
deeper mixing should continue to support above normal
temperatures with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Skies are expected to clear out overnight supporting good
radiational cooling, although not ideal as the center of the
surface high remains well to the west. Expect overnight lows to
be a couple of categories cooler with lows in the  lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Little change is expected on Wednesday as high pressure
continues to build into the area from the northwest and with the
northerly flow continuing slightly cooler air will also persist
over the region. High temperatures Tuesday will be in the upper
80s to low 90s and on Wednesday the mid 80s to around 90.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s Tuesday night and
the upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highly amplified upper level pattern will be slow to change through
Friday then become more zonal for the weekend. The upper level
trough will gradually dig into the eastern US Thursday and early
Friday with the axis finally swinging offshore early Friday
afternoon. By Saturday the upper ridge which had been building into
the Great Lakes region will begin to get suppressed by troughing
moving into it resulting in more zonal flow by Sunday. At the
surface high pressure will be ridging into the forecast area
Thursday with the center overtaking the mid Atlantic States on
Saturday then sliding eastward into the Atlantic Basin Sunday. This
will keep drier air over the region through Friday with moisture
slowly returning to the region over the weekend with slight chance
of convection in the CSRA Saturday and the entire forecast area
Sunday. With the trough over the eastern US temperatures will be
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Expect VFR conditions through the 24 hr forecast period.

Cold front located over the Upstate is expected to move
southeastward through the region this morning and reach the
Coastal Plain by this afternoon. Southwesterly winds ahead of
the front around 5 knots should shift to the west/northwest
behind the front and pick up to around 10 knots by late morning
with some gusts up to 20 knots through the afternoon with deep
mixing expected. Cannot rule out some patchy fog mainly
impacting AGS through sunrise if skies clear out and possible
brief stratus at OGB ahead of the frontal passage, otherwise VFR
conditions expected through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
the end of the week.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$