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225
FXUS63 KDLH 010527
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1227 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected to build in this afternoon
  and evening, primarily over Northwest Wisconsin. Showers
  depart through Saturday morning.

- More potent system arrives Sunday afternoon/evening in Monday, bringing
  an isolated chance of a severe storm and flash flooding.

- Temperatures continue to be around to slightly above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A lethargic cold front continues to work across the Northland today,
leading to areas of clouds and light rain showers primarily over
Northwest Wisconsin, and a secondary area over the Brainerd Lakes.
With afternoon heating we should see some redevelopment in those two
areas, leading to more widespread showers and some embedded
thunderstorms. There is still some uncertainty on just how far west
any showers will be able to develop with variances amongst CAM
guidance. Because of much drier air at the surface over much of
north-central and northeast Minnesota, any showers that do develop
may struggle to moisten the column enough for any appreciable rain.
Over NW WI however, a much more moisture rich environment will stick
around along the cold front, allowing for ample shower
redevelopment, with some embedded thunderstorms. Some training could
lead to up to an inch falling over portions of Sawyer, Ashland,
Iron, and Price Counties by midday Saturday. Much of the area should
see rain-free conditions by tomorrow morning, but some cloudiness
and isolated showers may stick around the tip of MN Arrowhead and
eastern portions of NW WI through Saturday afternoon.

A shortwave is still expected to move across the Dakotas and into
northern Minnesota Sunday afternoon into Monday. There has been a
northward and westward shift with placement of the attending surface
low pressure, which pulls the best parameter space for severe
weather Sunday evening and overnight further out of the Northland.
We may find ourselves in a warm sector Sunday, leading to some
cloudiness and showers, as suggested by some deterministic guidance.
But the primary low pressure and attendant cold front are expected
to sweep across the Northland overnight into Monday morning,
bringing some stronger storms and a possible severe storm or two
across the region. Should current timing trends continue, these
storms would have little instability to work with, but would still
benefit from the frontal forcing and up to 40knots bulk shear, along
with some extra support form a LLJ. Ensembles continue to suggest a
very moist environment, with PWATs of 1-2". Heavy rain is likely out
of storms and showers that develop. There is still disagreement
however on where exactly the heaviest rain in excess of 1" may fall.
Take your pick of ensemble members and nearly any city in the CWA
could become the recipient of 1.5" if the solution was correct. Will
continue to settle on a marginal chance for flash flooding across
the Northland, with hopefully more agreement on potential hot spots
as we get closer. Across the area, soil are saturated and streamflow
are normal to far above normal, so any heavy rain could be
impactful.

A breif lull into Tuesday before guidance continues to hone in on
and agree on yet another stout shortwave that could pull up another
round of moist air and some severe potential, should the timing and
placement line up correctly. Will keep our eyes on this secondary
disturbance for any severe or flash flooding risks.

Outside of rain chances, expected fairly seasonable to just above
normal temperatures with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the
40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Rain showers continue overnight as a stalled out frontal boundary
lingers over NW WI. Thunderstorms chances have quickly taper off
this evening with no observed ltg in the past 2.5 hours. Rain will
linger this longest over NW WI before tapering off by late morning.
Ceilings will also improve to VFR as the rain dissipates. A small
cold front will move in from the northwest today and could generate
some isolated showers and storms in the afternoon. Additionally, look
for winds to swing to out of the west as the front passes.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Breezy southwest winds continue into Saturday, strongest in the
afternoon with some gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible, particularly
along the North Shore. Expect some showers and isolated
thunderstorms overnight tonight, but no severe weather is
anticipated. Winds turn from being light southwesterly Sunday
morning to breezy northeasterly by Sunday afternoon, again with some
15-20 knot gusts possible, particularly near the head of the lake.
Overnight into Monday, expect widespread heavy rain showers and
thunderstorms, some of which could bring strong gusty winds, small
hail, and heavy downpours. Lingering moist air could lead to some
marine dense fog Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Levens