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892
FXUS63 KDMX 220527
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1227 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- The severe risk for the area has diminished this evening and
  dry conditions will prevail through the night.

- Expect gusty winds to continue tonight but steadily diminish
  through the morning hours.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Already one round of heavy rainfall moved through the state last
night with 3 to 5 inches of rainfall in some areas with isolated
higher amounts that led to flash flooding. Severe storms also moved
over southern and parts of central Iowa in the morning hours. As a
shortwave trough lifts northeastward and negatively tilts this
afternoon, latest Warn on Forecast System (WoFS) is showing
good airmass recovery with dewpoints rising 5 or so degrees
ahead of a surface triple point. Low level kinematics are
already strong and mid-levels are increasing as well. As the
airmass recovers, WoFS shows strong instability with MLCAPE
growing above 1500 J/kg and very favorable 0-500m and 0-1km SRH
ahead of it as well. Hodographs show a bit more linear
depiction, but initially they may be able to remain curved in
the low levels. Therefore, concern and confidence remain high of
rotating storms capable of tornadoes, including a few strong
given the Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch issued
earlier, damaging wind gusts including the potential of a few
intense wind gusts (greater than 75 mph), and large hail larger
than golf ball size. The hail size can be greater with rotating
storms as hailstones recycle in the updraft. Rainfall with
these storms of 1 to 2 inches will be possible and could cause
new flash flooding or prolong or renew flooding with rivers
rising as well from the recent and future rainfall. Storms will
move quickly through our area this afternoon and be largely east
of a Waterloo to Ottumwa line by around 7pm

As we move into this evening, we will enter a several day period of
drier conditions, which will be welcome for saturated soils and
swollen streams. While river flooding will be peaking mid to
late this week, no substantial rainfall is forecast until
Thursday night into Friday. This is when the next shortwave
trough will approach and pass north of the region and bring
thunderstorms through the state. The timing may mitigate a wider
severe risk, but instability and shear may be sufficient for a
few strong to severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A primarily MVFR cloud deck remains draped over the area early
this morning, but will depart north and east through the coming
hours. Expect gusty winds to continue through the night as
well, with potentially a brief break in the morning before winds
pick up again later today. Winds today won`t be near as strong
as yesterday`s with gusts out of the west around 20 to 25 kts
expected.
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&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Dodson