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970
FXUS63 KDMX 211842
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
142 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
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- Take action for ALL weather warnings this afternoon with
  tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail all possible
- Renewed or prolonged flooding possible with rain that falls
  this afternoon with rivers rising
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Already one round of heavy rainfall moved through the state last
night with 3 to 5 inches of rainfall in some areas with isolated
higher amounts that led to flash flooding. Severe storms also moved
over southern and parts of central Iowa in the morning hours. As a
shortwave trough lifts northeastward and negatively tilts this
afternoon, latest Warn on Forecast System (WoFS) is showing
good airmass recovery with dewpoints rising 5 or so degrees
ahead of a surface triple point. Low level kinematics are
already strong and mid-levels are increasing as well. As the
airmass recovers, WoFS shows strong instability with MLCAPE
growing above 1500 J/kg and very favorable 0-500m and 0-1km SRH
ahead of it as well. Hodographs show a bit more linear
depiction, but initially they may be able to remain curved in
the low levels. Therefore, concern and confidence remain high of
rotating storms capable of tornadoes, including a few strong
given the Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch issued
earlier, damaging wind gusts including the potential of a few
intense wind gusts (greater than 75 mph), and large hail larger
than golf ball size. The hail size can be greater with rotating
storms as hailstones recycle in the updraft. Rainfall with
these storms of 1 to 2 inches will be possible and could cause
new flash flooding or prolong or renew flooding with rivers
rising as well from the recent and future rainfall. Storms will
move quickly through our area this afternoon and be largely east
of a Waterloo to Ottumwa line by around 7pm

As we move into this evening, we will enter a several day period of
drier conditions, which will be welcome for saturated soils and
swollen streams. While river flooding will be peaking mid to
late this week, no substantial rainfall is forecast until
Thursday night into Friday. This is when the next shortwave
trough will approach and pass north of the region and bring
thunderstorms through the state. The timing may mitigate a wider
severe risk, but instability and shear may be sufficient for a
few strong to severe storms.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Main concern is severe thunderstorms that may have large hail
and damaging wind gusts this afternoon. TEMPO lines are for best
timing of storms with impacts that may need more limited as the
storms move through than currently shown. Winds are gusty from
the southeast early this afternoon, but will stay gusty as they
become from the northwest behind the storms. A return to VFR
conditions is forecast into tonight.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-015>017-
023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>083-092.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Ansorge