-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
124
FXUS61 KGYX 291435
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1035 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass well north of New England, draping a cold
front across the area this afternoon. Compact low pressure
exiting the Great Lakes region will move along this front,
passing over or just south of the area tonight. High pressure
crosses the region this weekend and builds to the south early
next week. This will provide dry and warmer conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1030 AM...MAde some adjustments to winds through today, bumping
them up a but through mid afternoon or so, as we see a bit of of
WNW surge behind the front. Adjust sky and temps as well, mostly
based on current obs, with no significant changes to current
forecast. Will likely start to see better of of cu in srn this
afternoon, and maybe enough to pop up a convective shower late
this afternoon.

630am Update...Sunny start to the coast and interior. The only
clouds to be found are arranged across the mountains, but
quickly drying out as they pass into the foothills. This should
be a common theme through the AM, but clouds eventually thin
over the mountains and build over southern NH. Can`t rule out a
spotty shower or drizzle in the Whites or far western ME this
morning until these clouds clear.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure can be seen moving northeastward over Quebec this
morning, with an associated cold front advancing towards the
ME/QC border. Clouds with this front will thin this morning,
with many locations seeing mostly sunny skies before a field of
cu develops this afternoon. Warming surface and cool air aloft
will promote deep mixing, but this will be held back by weak
winds in the low levels.

Moisture in proximity to this passing front will be greatest in
southern portions of the CWA, and a few isolated showers will be
possible in far southern NH this afternoon. These will tend to
disperse in the evening as the front hangs up and diurnal
heating wanes.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Feature to watch for overnight rain chances will be exiting the
southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon. There
remains a wide spread of where this compact low will end up
tonight, and this has implications for rainfall chances and
amounts.

Focus of low pressure should ride near or just south of where
today`s front slows over southern portions of the area. Thus
have confidence that the mountains, and parts of western ME
remain dry tonight. Some of these spots could see a chilly
night, as clouds clear and winds become light. Valley fog will
be possible after midnight. More uncertain locations for rain
will be the NH/ME Lakes Region and Midcoast where dry air
arriving from the north may well keep low levels dry enough to
prevent measurable precip. As the low tracks along the front,
should see small precip shield break out on the north side, so a
period of continuous rainfall isn`t out of the question for far
southern NH and ME tonight into Thursday morning.

The low pulls off into the Gulf of Maine Thursday afternoon,
with mostly cloudy skies for the coast and interior, but a
fairly sunny day in NW parts. As a result, warmest temps of the
day may be more likely across the interior to foothills, where
the coast remains under clouds for much of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High wave number pattern continues across the N Hemisphere at
500 MB, but flow becomes a little less amplified, and this
shifts the trough and closed lows poleward, and also weaken them
a bit. Trough will shift E and weaken allowing for more zonal
flow at 500 MB, and possible 500 MB ridging early next week. To
sum up, we are looking at mainly dry period, with a gradual
warming trend.

Thu night will be the last chilly night for awhile, as sfc high
slowly builds in. Itll be mainly clear with lows around 40 in
the mtns, coolest in the sheltered valleys, to the mid to upper
40s in the S.

Friday through Monday look mainly dry, and generally sunny as
sfc high pressure gradually builds over the CWA, and mid level
flow turns SW allowing warmer air to move in. Highs on Friday of
the mid 60s to low 70s, will increase some each day reaching to
the mid 70s N to low 80s S by Monday. Overnight lows will
mostly be around 50 to start the weekend, but closer to the mid
to upper 50s by Monday. One possible complication maybe a
weakening convective system moving in from the W Sunday morning,
but still lots of uncertainty at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today. There will be the chance for some SHRA
in far southern NH terminals this afternoon, and again overnight
into Thursday morning. The second chance of rain will also
spread to central NH and southern coastal ME terminals. This
could be patches of MVFR ceilings to Thurs AM, but confidence is
low at this time. Valley fog will be possible for northern NH
and far western ME terminals tonight.

Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Thu night through Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Below SCA criteria today, but some 5ft waves will
be possible towards the Midcoast and outside Penobscot Bay. A
cold front will stall over the waters this afternoon, with low
pressure tracking along or just south through the overnight and
Thurs AM timeframe.

Long Term...High pressure settles over New England from Thu
night into early next week, and winds/seas expected to remain
below SCA levels during that time.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Cempa
AVIATION...
MARINE...