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068
FXUS63 KICT 212345
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible across southeast KS this afternoon/evening

- A few showers/storms late tonight across central and southern KS.

- Nocturnal storms possible Thursday night, Saturday night, and
  Sunday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

As of 2 PM Tuesday afternoon, a potent, midlevel shortwave trough
was progressing through north central KS. At the surface, a low was
positioned near Omaha with a trailing cold front through Topeka and
Eureka. The environment ahead of this frontal zone is becoming
increasingly unstable with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE analyzed. Low-
level winds have largely veered to the south-southwest immediately
ahead of the front. With westerly to southwesterly flow aloft,
hodographs are largely straight. This should foster cell splits and
an eventual upscale growth, especially east of our forecast area.
All of that to say, the overlap of strong instability and deep shear
should support large hail to golf ball size, damaging winds up to 70
mph, and brief heavy rain. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out
as well. Any storm activity should exit the area by 7 PM.

A secondary, and weaker, shortwave trough was advancing through the
central Rockies at this hour. The expectation is for showers/storms
to develop across the higher terrain later this afternoon and
gradually move eastward into portions of central KS late tonight
into Wednesday morning. No severe weather is expected.

The pattern by late week into the weekend appears to be becoming
more-favorable for nocturnal convection, especially Thursday
night/Friday morning, Saturday night/Sunday morning, and Sunday
night/Monday morning. Typically this type of nocturnal convection
will have the potential to produce damaging winds and heavy rain.
Given the upcoming holiday weekend and plethora of outdoor
activities, we encourage folks to check back through the week
and weekend for forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

There are minimal aviation concerns this forecast period. Breezy
afternoon winds should quickly subside this evening. Showers and
a few thunderstorms in eastern Colorado are expected to track
east in western Kansas and could persist across north central
portions of the state tonight close to 6Z. Confidence is not
high enough that they will hold together to make any mention in
the TAF at this time; a scattered to broken cloud deck at 10k
is more likely with this activity.
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&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...VJP