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279
FXUS61 KILN 221842
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
242 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Episodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end
of the work week and weekend. Temperatures are expected to trend
above normal through the weekend before a stronger system
impacts the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday, which will reduce
temperatures to near normal at the beginning of the next work
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A relative minimum in convection is expected through the bulk
of the afternoon hours. CAMs continue to be fairly meager with
any initiation during peak heating hours when CAPE and lapse
rates (particularly in the lower levels) will be more conducive
for strong/severe storm potential. Thus, while the afternoon
period will still have to be monitored for any CI, it does not
appear favorable. If any storms do happen to materialize, the
primary threats would be localized downbursts and large hail -
wind shear is not strong/favorable enough to warrant a tornado
concern.

There is a better signal in CAMs for convection during the
evening and overnight period, with slightly better forcing.
Minor improvement to wind shear values expected as well, which
could lead to a better window of severe potential mainly during
the late evening and early overnight period. However, this
potential will likely still be limited given the lack of strong,
dynamic forcing. Additionally, the cold front that tries to work
through our CWA becomes pretty washed out and thus doesn`t
provide the best surface mechanism for organized convection.

Storm activity will begin to wane around the middle of the
night, mainly around 12AM - 2AM. A few light showers may linger
a bit longer, particularly in portions of central OH down
through northern KY.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A slight cooldown is forecast on Thursday, but temperatures
still trend slightly above seasonal normals. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be lower on Thursday, but still linger
given the stalled, weak frontal boundary laying across our CWA.
Locations north of I-70 have the best chance to remain dry all
day, and will also experience slightly lower temps and
dewpoints. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered storm develop still
possible throughout the day, particularly in the afternoon and
evening when we are near peak diurnal heating.

Boundary continues to lift north as a warm front Thursday night.
However, shower/storm coverage will become less extensive
Thursday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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In westerly flow aloft, a weak mid level short wave will progress
east across the Ohio Valley later Friday afternoon into Friday
night. Some weak destabilization through the afternoon on Friday
will lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with a better
chance overspreading the area heading into Friday evening as the
short wave moves in. Pcpn chances will then diminish heading into
Saturday as we get on the back side of the short wave.

Another mid level short wave will lift northeast into the Ohio
Valley during the day on Sunday as a stronger secondary short
wave/mid level low pivots northeast out of the mid Mississippi
Valley and into the Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday. This
will allow for an associated surface low to lift northeast from the
central Plains on Sunday into the central Great Lakes through the
day on Monday. Increasing moisture/forcing ahead of this system will
lead to developing showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night and continuing into the day on Monday. Given the
strengthening wind fields and track of the surface low, some severe
storms will be possible, especially later Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night.

An upper level trough will eventually settle in across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley region through early to mid next week.
Additional embedded mid level short waves rotating through the
trough will keep some lingering chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the remainder of the long term period.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend with
daytime highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A more seasonable
airmass will then move into the region through early to mid next
week with daytime highs mostly in the lower to mid 70s.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Complex of storms has pushed east of the terminals this
afternoon. A lull in pcpn/storm activity is expected through the
remainder of the afternoon and perhaps into the early evening.
There will be a fair amount of cu around still, primarily VFR.
Brief periods of MVFR CIGs are possible this afternoon however,
but this should be pretty limited. Expect breezy conditions with
sustained winds of 10-15 kts and gusts of 20-25 kts, mainly
through the early evening.

Chances for storms will increase late this evening, closer to
00z for all terminals. Only put in a VCTS mention for now until
confidence increases on storm coverage across these terminals.
Shower/storm activity will continue into the middle of the night
before waning and shifting eastward. A weak frontal boundary
will begin to slide through. Winds will weaken and become
variable around 5 kts with this washed out boundary.

Guidance does hint at potential MVFR CIGs developing Thursday
morning. Better chances and coverage expected for KCVG/KLUK and
perhaps KILN. Confidence is lower on northern terminals, so will
have to see how things trend.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Sunday. MVFR
ceilings possible early Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Clark