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204
FXUS63 KIWX 280612
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
212 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Scattered to isolated showers tonight.

- Another chance for showers and a non-severe thunderstorm or
  two will be possible Tuesday and a few lingering showers will
  be around east of IN-15 on Wednesday.

- Dry weather occurs Thursday and Friday.

- Hazardous swimming conditions for Lake Michigan beaches in La
  Porte County in Indiana and Berrien County in Michigan today
  and then again Wednesday.
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.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

A broad trough anchored by an upper low in Central Canada is
situated across the Central CONUS. This trough contains various
broad areas of vorticity with one having pushed out of the area this
morning. Behind this, an area of subsidence sets up around midday
into the afternoon drying out the column into the evening. At this
point, a second shortwave rounds the base of the trough overhead and
provides more showers. While embedded thunder is possible,
instability is expected to be meager enough to keep this just rain.
Yet another shortwave rounds the trough for Tuesday. Now, behind the
first shortwave, there may be enough breaks in the clouds to allow
for the generation of instability for thunderstorms Tuesday midday
and afternoon, but shear will be lacking to make it sub-severe. By
Wednesday, the back edge of the forcing of the unsettled weather can
be seen, but it`ll likely take until the evening to get here. So,
expect areas east of IN-15 to have clouds and lingering rain and
maybe an embedded storm. This is in contrast to areas west of IN-15
that have a better chance to see breaks in the clouds and a drying
trend.

The best chance to break out of the unsettled weather occurs on
Thursday as the mid level ridge that was knocking on our door on
Wednesday finally nudges its way in. This will provide dry weather
for Thursday as surface high pressure is overhead. High pressure
slides eastward on Friday allowing our 70 degree temperatures in the
first part of the week to trend warmer for Friday, reaching the mid
70s.

Next Saturday could start the day cloudy as a warm front attempts to
move northward through the area. As it does so, rain, without
instability moves through. This may stunt warming and could make 80
degrees harder to come by. Temperatures on Sunday and chances for
showers/storms will be dependent on if that warm front can rise
north. Will handle Sunday with the NBM with lower confidence on
outcomes this far out, but just know that this is a changeable
day forecast-wise.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Predominantly VFR conditions at the TAF sites with chances for
showers and then later perhaps thunderstorms. The only exception
will be this morning where we see little pockets of clearing
and a light and variable wind ahead of the next weak shortwave.
KSBN at the moment is reporting 1SM BR, but expect that to
increase back to MVFR (perhaps VFR) as the clouds over Michigan
City, IN move in and winds increase from the west around 5
knots. It`s possible we see drops to around 3SM in the 9-12z
time frame as well, with chances for additional rain showers
until 13z with the incoming shortwave. It`s possible KFWA drops
to IFR/MVFR towards the 8-12z time frame as the axis of weak
winds/clearing moves eastward, but confidence wasn`t high enough
to include yet. Will monitor trends and amend if needed.

Additional showers and storms are possible this afternoon and
evening with a more potent shortwave. Drops to MVFR/IFR are
possible within any heavier showers or thunderstorms. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions.
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&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...MCD