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211
FXUS63 KIWX 271104
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
704 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Lingering showers and thunderstorms may impact activities
  tonight through Wednesday.

- Hazardous swimming conditions for Lake Michigan beaches in La
  Porte County in Indiana and Berrien County in Michigan today
  and then again Wednesday.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Cold front currently sitting northeast to southwest orientated
over the CWA and sitting roughly just east of Three Rivers, MI
down to just east of Peru, IN. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have accompanied the front as it moves eastward
with just a few stronger cells from time to time. Drier air
beginning to move in from the west in the wake of the frontal
boundary. These showers and storms will continue to move
eastward out of the area through around 7AM EDT and will get a
small break from precipitation across the area for the first
part of the day today. However, with a trough sitting over
Ontario, Canada and the Great Lakes region a few shortwave
disturbances will ripple through the main flow over the next
couple of days keeping clouds around and bringing periods of
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Just enough to be
annoying.

Highs today will be cooler with temperatures in the 60s over
the northern parts of the CWA and areas near Lake Michigan with
low 70s elsewhere. The first of the disturbances will move
through the area this evening/tonight bringing
showers/thunderstorms and some gusty winds. Gusts up to 25 mph
this evening.

On Tuesday, a few lingering showers will be possible through the
day until the afternoon when another disturbance moves through
bringing better chances of showers/thunderstorms and breezy
conditions into Wednesday evening. Highs on Tuesday will be
just a tad warmer with areas close to the lake only in the upper
60s and the rest of the area in the lower 70s. High amplitude
ridging over the central CONUS will begin to move eastward into
the area by late Wednesday and will allow for skies to begin
clearing out and bring a return to dry weather. High
temperatures will remain a bit cooler than normal levels, which
for South Bend is 73 degrees and 75 degrees for Fort Wayne,
through Thursday. Morning lows on Thursday and Friday will get
down into the lower to mid 40s with good radiational cooling
with mostly clear skies due to the ridging. Warming trend late
week with Friday highs returning to above normal levels in the
mid 70s for most locations and Saturday warmer yet with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

The next chance of showers/thunderstorms returns by Saturday
afternoon with a weak trough pushing into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 659 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Predominantly MVFR conditions expected at the TAF sites, with
brief IFR ceilings possible this morning as we get a weak wave
move through. Upstream observations have ceilings 700-1500 ft,
with some patchy drizzle reported. Have a tempo through 14-15z
to account for this, but otherwise expect improvement towards
VFR this afternoon and evening. There are chances for showers
and storms again tonight, but wasn`t confident enough to include
anything beyond VCSH at KSBN at this time. Most of the guidance
keeps the best chances away from the terminal.
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&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...MCD