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257
FXUS61 KLWX 260801
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm and humid air mass will persist through Memorial Day.
A strong cold front will push through the area Monday night.
A secondary cold front moves in by mid-week before high
pressure builds in late next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

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Low-mid level height rises are expected through the day today
which should help suppress convective cvrg and keep any activity
disorganized and short-lived. Despite the ridging, a weak
pressure trof remains over the area, remnant outflows from
yesterday`s evening convection, and any bay breeze may be just
enough to spark isold random convection about anywhere. Best
chance would be over the ridges and along the bay breeze.

A large convective complex is likely to evolve across the OH
Valley tonight and likely cross the Appalachian region after
midnight. While this complex is likely to weaken with time, some
guidance show the complex remaining strong overnight as it
moves across central VA and the I-64 corridor.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

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Memorial Day...Large scale ascent and strengthening sfc
convergence along a pre-frontal trough is expected to generate
widespread showers and thunderstorms from Noon through about
8PM. Environment will be favorable initially for HP supercells
capable of producing isold tornadoes with additional t-storm
activity congealing quickly into an organized complex as shown
by simulated satellite imagery from various global models.
Damaging winds will be the primary hazard, but a couple of
tornadoes can`t be ruled out. The model signal for heavy rain
has decreased somewhat since the past couple of days. Eastern
areas, particularly central and northeast MD, would be at
greatest risk of any flooding once thunderstorm complex evolves.
Fast storm motions of 30-35 kt should keep this threat isold at
best. Front pushes quickly east of the area after 00Z Tue with
thunderstorm threat ending.

Additional shortwave energy moving around the base of the upper
trough will keep low-topped showers in the forecast through
Tuesday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

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Mid-level cyclonic flow will allow for NW flow through much of the
long term - resulting in lower heights and a period of below normal
temperatures with low relative humidity.

The last of a series of shortwaves will be departing on Wednesday,
with a few showers or even a thunderstorm possible. This feature
will also have an accompanying weak sfc cold front. Tds will fall
into the mid-upper 40s for Thursday and Friday - making it feel more
like fall wx than that of late May in the Mid-Atlantic. A favorable
pattern for radiational cooling will develop Wednesday night through
Friday night. Overall, lows will be in the 40s to low 50s for most.
The typical high elevation cold pockets could definitely make a run
at 32F.

H5 heights start to rise by next weekend with moisture returning to
the area. Lots of spread, but have chance POPs again for next
Saturday into Sunday.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

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Chance of thunderstorms too low today, but may increase tonight.
Severe thunderstorms are likely Monday afternoon with the
primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

Prevailing VFR conditions are likely Wednesday, though a passing
shower is possible. VFR Thursday. Winds will become northwesterly at
about 10-15 kts Wednesday before decreasing Thursday.
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&&

.MARINE...

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Southerly winds are expected to increase tonight into Memorial
Day as pressures fall in advance of a strong cold front. SMWs
will be required on Memorial Day due to likelihood of severe
thunderstorms.

A passing shower is possible over the waters Wednesday. Winds will
be prevailing out of the NW about 10 kts, with gusts up to 15-20 kts
during the afternoon hours behind the secondary cold front.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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Minor coastal flooding is possible this morning and again on
Memorial Day.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday
     for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...LFR/CPB
MARINE...LFR/CPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR