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373
FXUS65 KPSR 232150
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
250 PM MST Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures will continue to hover around normal for this time of
year over the next few days before an area of low pressure
brushes past the region, cooling us down for the start of the
weekend. Breezy to locally windy conditons will accompany this
system, with the strongest winds focused over southeast California
Friday afternoon/evening. Temperatures quickly warm up into the
triple digits by the end of the Memorial Day Weekend into the
start of the next work week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Current analysis continues to show weak troughing stretched out
over the Desert Southwest, resulting in benign weather for our
forecast area. Heights aloft over the next day or so will be
around climatological normals for this time of year, leading to
seasonal temperatures in the middle to upper 90s through the end
of the week. SE California will see day-to-day temperatures cool a
few degrees between today and Friday as a stronger troughing
approaches the region. However, highs will remain in the middle
90s for lower elevation communities. Relatively cooler air will
then spread over the entire Desert Southwest as the previously-
mentioned system encompasses more of the region, resulting in
daytime highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday afternoon for
lower desert areas, a good 5-10 degrees below normal for late
May.

Widespread breezy to locally windy conditions will accompany the
aforementioned disturbance, with the strongest gusts focused over
parts of SE California Friday afternoon and evening. Gusts
between 30-40 mph will be common over Imperial and Riverside
Counties, with HREF guidance indicating high chances (>80%) of the
areas around the Imperial Valley and Salton Sea observing wind
exceeding advisory levels (gusts >40 mph). Due to the potential
for these enhanced gusts, a Wind Advisory has been posted for the
above-mentioned areas for late Friday afternoon through Friday
evening. This advisory may be extended further east for the
remainder of southern Imperial County towards the Colorado River
Valley, but less confidence surrounds wind gusts reaching criteria
for these areas. Elsewhere across our forecast area, gusts 20-30
mph will be common, with isolated higher gusts over enhanced
terrain features. Breezy conditions will likely develop again on
Saturday, with peak gusts around 30-35 mph over the high terrain
of south-central Arizona and parts of SE California. However, at
this time, the chances of seeing advisory-level gusts are too low
to warrant the posting of more Wind Advisories.

Global ensembles continue to agree that the trough will eject out
of the region by Sunday before giving way to an amplified ridging
pattern across much of the western CONUS by the end of the
Memorial Day Weekend and the start of the next work week.
Subsequent warming will quickly ensue, with temperatures rising
back into the middle 90s by Sunday, rising further into the upper
90s to around 100 degrees for some areas by Monday. Day-to-day
temperatures will continue to increase through the middle of next
week as the ridge continues to dominate our forecast area.
Afternoon highs by Tuesday across the lower deserts are forecasted
to range between 100-105 degrees, with similar conditions
expected again on Wednesday. This pattern will also promote
tranquil and very dry conditions, with no rain chances anticipated
potentially through the end of May.
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&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1740Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Typical diurnal wind tendencies will persist at all terminals
through the next 24 hours. Winds will continue to veer W/SW by
21-22z, with a period of southerly variability in the meantime
before 21z. Breezes increase up to 8-12 kts, with gusts up to 20
kts, with the W/SW shift. A gulf surge in the evening will keep
winds W/SW through 6-8Z before diurnal E winds set in. SKC will
prevail through this afternoon followed by SCT cirrus tonight and
into tomorrow morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

S/SW winds will prevail at KBLH and W/SW will prevail at KIPL.
Light E/SE flow at IPL will quickly veer out of the W/SW early
this afternoon. Speeds increase up to 10-15 kts at KBLH this
afternoon, while KIPL increases up to 12-18 kts this evening. Both
terminals will see gusts up to around 25 kts. SKC will prevail,
followed by SCT cirrus this evening and into tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Elevated fire weather conditions will exist both Friday and
Saturday over parts of the western districts and high terrain of
the eastern districts as a weak system helps to generate breezy
to locally windy conditions. Strongest winds (30-40 mph peak gusts)
will be focused over the western districts and enhances terrain
areas, with 20-30 mph gusts expected elsewhere. MinRH values
during this timeframe will increase from 10-15% Friday, to 10-20%
Saturday. MaxRH will follow a similar trend, rising from 25-40%
Friday, to 30-50% Saturday. For the remainder of today, dry
conditions will persist as winds continue to follow diurnal
tendencies, with occasional afternoon gusts near 20 mph.
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&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-563-566-
     567.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RW
AVIATION...Young/Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...RW