Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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537 FXUS65 KABQ 252025 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 225 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 223 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Critical to extreme fire danger is expected through this evening, rapidly spreading any active fires and additional ones that are started. Wildfire smoke will impact areas downwind of the Blue 2 fire, including Ruidoso. Winds trend weaker tomorrow in most areas, but elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still likely along and east of the central mountain chain. Pleasant weather is forecast for Memorial Day with slightly above average temperatures and a light breeze. Temperatures will rise early next week as winds continue to drop. Moisture will likely return to eastern NM, potentially generating showers and storms each afternoon Tuesday through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 223 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024 A fast-moving upper level trough moving north of the Four Corners region today has forced a 110 kt speed max and associated dry slot over NM. As of 2pm, winds have increased to between 30 and 40 mph in most areas with localized gusts near 50 mph from Ruidoso to Dunken and isolated spots of eastern NM. The core of 45 to 55 kt 700-500mb winds is still on target to cross southern and eastern NM centered around 6pm. Winds will likely increase further thru late today as the 12Z HREF shows peak gust timing from 4pm to 7pm with a subtle west wind shift. No additional changes are needed to the current Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings. Blowing dust will increase as well, especially areas that have not received wetting rainfall in the past couple weeks. The area around Roswell will be monitored closely for potential impacts to the Relief Route as winds pick up from the southwest. Significant downwind smoke impacts are possible as well across parts of eastern NM based on surface-concentrations from HRRR and BlueSky. A subtle west wind shift will occur thru sunset as a weak Pacific cold front passes thru the region. Winds will diminish slowly in the wake of the front in most areas. The exception will be along the central mt chain with westerly downslope winds continue thru the entire night. A few locales may still see gusts over 35 mph all night. Winds will then shift from west/northwest Sunday with breezy conditions focused over the high plains of eastern NM, especially around Clines Corners. Overall, a much better day is expected other than lingering smoke impacts from any active fires. Temps will trend slightly cooler with slightly higher humidity as well under sunny skies. Lighter winds will take hold Sunday night under clear skies and seasonably cool temps. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 223 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Pleasant late Spring weather is expected for Memorial day with near to slightly above average temperatures, light winds, and partly cloudy skies. Confidence continues to increase that ridging will amplify over the Intermountain West early next week, bringing temps further above average and also helping Gulf moisture sneak into eastern NM. Tuesday looks like it could be the first of several days with dryline convection in eastern NM. A shortwave grazing the area in combination with LIs as low as -10C and steep mid-level lapse rates indicate there is the potential for strong storms on Tuesday afternoon in eastern NM if the dryline pushes far enough west. Depending on the location and intensity of convection, Albuquerque could see an east canyon wind Tuesday morning and again Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, winds should be relatively light through the end of the week. If ridging sticks around, shower and storm chances will continue for eastern NM, but if a trough develops over the central Rockies late week, stronger westerlies could kick the dryline back to the east. As far as temperatures go, highs should hover near to as much as 10 degrees above average throughout the week, with the hottest weather likely Tuesday and Wednesday when Albuquerque could see its first 90F day of the year. Highs in eastern NM will be pushing the mid-90s each day, although these could drop in future days if the dryline is expected to setup further west. Higher dewpoints and increased cloud cover across the east could help to keep overnight lows a few degrees above average as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Widespread strong southwest to west winds will impact the region through sunset with localized blowing dust and smoke. Gusts from 35 to 45 kt will be common across central and eastern NM with the strongest gusts peaking between 4 pm and 6 pm as a weak cold front moves thru the region. The greatest chance for blowing dust with lowered cigs/vsbys will be at KROW. Smoke will produce significant reductions to vsbys immediately downwind of fires thru sunset. Some smoke may settle into the lower elevations of eastern NM and the upper RGV overnight with limited vsbys possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024 ...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY, THEN CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUNDAY... Widespread strong winds over the region today will taper off in most areas between sunset and midnight. Locations along the east slopes of the central mt chain will likely see breezy west winds continue for the entire night. West to northwest winds Sunday will remain breezy along the central mt chain with a focus around the Central Highlands from near Las Vegas to Clines Corners and Vaughn. There is a small area of critical fire weather based on wind and humidity but Haines indices are moderate and RFTI category is subcritical. The Fire Weather Watch will not be upgraded given lower confidence. A break to the fire growing pattern will beginning Sunday night. Low level moisture will begin sloshing over eastern NM next week while a weak ridge of high pressure develops over the region. Temps will be much warmer as well with the hottest readings so far this season over central and western NM. Eastern NM will see increasing chances for showers and storms, especially Tuesday through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 44 77 45 84 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 33 75 34 80 / 10 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 39 73 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 35 77 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 37 73 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 36 78 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 38 75 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 78 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 41 74 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 33 82 39 86 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 48 85 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 32 68 35 73 / 10 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 47 73 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 45 74 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 38 68 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 33 65 35 69 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 32 67 32 71 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 36 75 37 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 41 72 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 45 81 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 45 76 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 79 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 81 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 48 83 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 48 85 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 46 85 49 89 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 83 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 46 85 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 48 84 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 46 85 49 89 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 51 78 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 50 83 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 50 88 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 73 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 45 77 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 44 78 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 41 78 41 84 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 44 73 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 43 77 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 43 77 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 50 82 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 75 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 42 74 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 42 79 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 42 80 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 45 76 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 50 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 46 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 51 88 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 51 83 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 55 88 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 55 89 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 56 91 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 54 88 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 58 95 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 52 86 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 49 86 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106- 109-120>126. Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223>225-227>234- 237>239. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ125. High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226-240. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...42