993
FXUS65 KABQ 240556
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1156 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Dry and windy conditions will persist through Memorial Day
weekend. The driest and windiest day looks to be Saturday
resulting in rapid fire growth for any fires that do start or the
ongoing fires that break containment. Wind gusts on Saturday
certainly could exceed 50 mph in some areas especially in the
higher terrain of New Mexico and the eastern plains. Areas of
blowing dust will likely result from the gusty winds with some
lower visibility. While many people will want to camp, hike or
engage in outdoor activities this weekend, it is best not to do
anything with a flame or spark that could get out of control.
Precipitation chances remain low for much of the forecast but
there might be an increase in moisture over eastern New Mexico for
the middle of next week that will support a few storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

A dry and breezy to windy weather pattern remains over NM this
afternoon. The ABQ 12Z morning sounding sported very dry conditions
through the column with a low 0.17" PWAT being measured. WV imagery
also shows a nice dry slot embedded within the mid to upper level
westerly flow over NM. This is all situated south of a 548dm H5 low
spinning over north-central WY that is forecast to move eastward
over the northern Great Plains tonight into Friday. Winds will
decouple tonight, lessening at lower elevations and staying breezy
to windy at ridgetops overnight. The aforementioned upper low will
send down a dry frontal boundary into northeastern NM, providing a
northeasterly and easterly wind shift plus a relative influx of
moisture.

Unfortunately quasi-zonal flow aloft will bring a return of westerly
to southwesterly winds that will push this boundary back toward TX,
OK and CO. Another dry and breezy day will result most areas. Only
far northeastern NM will hold onto to the higher humidity. Winds
lessen Friday night again before stronger westerly to southwesterly
winds return Saturday to start the long term period.

Active wildfires in AZ and northern NM are also producing notable
smoke plumes which are very evident on satellite imagery. Some of
this smoke is settling down to near ground level overnight over
parts of northern and central NM producing haze. This is likely to
happen again tonight and Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Overall there are not a lot of changes in the forecast from the
last few updates. Saturday continues to look like a bad day for
winds and fire weather concerns. A trough drops south from Alaska
and swings across the Rockies on Saturday. At the same time there
is a fairly strong/active sub-tropical jet that develops over NM.
The coupled jet structure will support some strong jet stream
winds. With some deep mixing it looks like 50 mph wind gusts will
be a decent probability for areas along and east of the Sangre de
Cristo Mtns, central mountains and Sacramento Mtns. Tomorrow will
be the best time to evaluate for any high wind watches/advisories
going into the weekend. Blowing dust from White Sands and other
source regions could be an issue. There are at least 2-3 fires in
the state that will need monitoring much like today. It cannot be
stressed enough that people engaging in outdoor activities this
holiday weekend need to be careful with any kind of open flame. In
the end really just not a good idea for camp fires or open
grilling. It is just not worth the risk.

Westerly winds aloft remain over much of the region on Sunday as
another trough moves across the northern Rockies ahead of
subsequent ridging. Fire weather concerns shift to eastern NM on
Sunday but winds are not expected to be as strong. The real
problem is that humidity levels just do not recover much at all
over the weekend and into early next week. That means min RH in
the afternoon go from 5 percent maybe up to 20 to 30 percent at
night which is still quite dry. If winds were to stay high
overnight then we would need to look at extending red flag
warnings to the overnight which has not been done very much. The
point being is that it will remain dry for much of the state.

Precipitation chances may get back into the forecast for the
northeast part of the state Tuesday through Thursday. Moisture
return after a weak backdoor front on Monday does increase Tuesday
into Wednesday. GFS is quite optimistic with thunderstorm chances
Wednesday into Thursday as a result with the ECMWF not as much.
This part of the forecast really hinges on the evolution of other
fronts pushing down the plains and stalling with moisture return
set ups. Confidence remains on the low side with these kinds of
patterns knowing any amount of convection and MCS development in
the plains could alter frontal timing.

Lastly as ridging does take hold over much of the area Tuesday
into Wednesday temperatures will be on the rise. High temperatures
will get into the 90s for much of E NM with that potential
increasing for the RGV and ABQ metro on both Tue/Wed. For
context, the average first 90 degree day in ABQ is around May 27
with the earliest occurring May 3.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

A backdoor front will shift winds out of the northeast as it
slides through northeast and east central areas during the late
night and early morning hours. The front is not forecast to reach
as far south as Roswell, but it probably will move through the
Clovis and Portales area around 6 AM MDT. South and southwest
winds will become gusty again on Friday afternoon, but the flow
aloft will be a little weaker, so speeds shouldn`t be quite as
strong as those clocked Thursday. Active smoke plumes will emanate
from the northwest, west central, and south central mountains, as
well as Arizona, on Friday. View the HRRR Model`s forecast smoke
loop here: https://shorturl.at/GegLT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EASTERN NM TODAY, NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND WEST-CENTRAL NM
FRIDAY, THEN AREAWIDE SATURDAY, AND MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY...

A persistent warm, dry and windy weather pattern will support fire
growth and rapid fire spread each day through the Memorial Day
Weekend, with winds finally letting up on Memorial Day Monday. Dry
westerly flow aloft will continue over NM, with stronger winds
mixing down to the surface each afternoon and tapering off each
night. Friday`s winds will be slightly less than what has been
observed today, strengthening again Saturday allowing for widespread
critical fire weather conditions, then lessening some Sunday. High
Haines and Haines6 will also be present allowing for active smoke
plumes to develop each afternoon as well. Afternoon humidity falling
to near or below ten percent many areas will only see poor to fair
recoveries at night. The main exception of note will be a weak
frontal boundary backing into northeastern and east-central NM
tonight into Friday morning bringing a northeasterly to easterly
wind shift. But even this airmass will be pushed back toward
TX/OK/CO Friday afternoon. We could see some erratic gusty winds
emanating from convection over the CO Rockies spread southward into
northern NM Saturday afternoon/evening.

A ridge moves over NM by Monday, accompanied by a backdoor cold
front pushing through eastern NM bringing replenishing moisture in
the form of higher humidity and better recoveries. Winds lessen by
this point as well, lowering the threat of critical fire weather.
Indications are fair that this increased moisture will spread
further over eastern NM by the end of the month, increasing the
chances for afternoon thunderstorms along and east of the central
mountain chain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  80  43  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  73  35  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  75  41  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  75  37  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  71  40  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  77  38  79  40 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  78  40  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  79  48  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  77  43  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  79  36  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  83  51  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  69  35  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  73  50  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  77  47  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  70  43  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  58  38  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  66  33  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  75  38  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  71  43  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  82  47  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  75  48  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  80  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  81  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  85  51  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  85  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  87  48  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  83  52  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  86  48  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  83  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  86  50  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  80  52  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  82  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  91  51  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  49  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  78  48  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  75  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  81  44  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  73  46  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  80  46  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  79  46  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  81  51  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  78  51  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  76  39  71  43 /   0   0   5   0
Raton...........................  79  40  76  42 /   0   0   5   0
Springer........................  82  43  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  74  45  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  85  47  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  80  46  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  87  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  84  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  88  50  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  90  54  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  90  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  89  54  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  95  59  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  85  54  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  82  51  87  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for NMZ123.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...44