Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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254 FXUS65 KABQ 240813 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 213 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 137 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Mostly dry and tranquil conditions are forecast through the rest of the week as a ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere dominates the weather pattern. Temperatures will warm each day today, Wednesday and Thursday. Readings will reach 5 to 10 degrees above average in most of western and central New Mexico by Thursday with eastern areas running just a couple to a few degrees above. This will mean some western and central New Mexico locations will be close to record highs on Thursday with only small day-to-day temperature changes into Friday and the weekend. Mostly light to moderate breezes are forecast through the week too, but some gusty winds will spill into northeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and then through the gaps and canyons of the central mountain chain Tuesday evening when gusts may reach 20 to 30 mph for a few hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Pleasant weather is expected again today across the Land of Enchantment. There remains a very low chance (<10%) of patchy fog development this morning across the lower Pecos River Valley. Dewpoint depressions will continue to plummet the next few hours, approaching 0F right around sunrise. Very light south to southwest winds in the area should prevent fog from far southeastern NM making it northward into the forecast area. The ridge currently over The Great Basin will quickly shift eastward over New Mexico today, allowing temps to warm a few to several degrees from yesterday`s highs everywhere except for the far northeast where highs will be similar thanks to a backdoor front intrusion. The front will struggle on its journey south and westward this afternoon, reaching the central mtn chain by the evening. Briefly breezy east winds are likely in Albuquerque with no impacts expected. Models continue to trend drier in the south-central mtns this afternoon, with even sprinkles appearing unlikely now. The probability of fog development tomorrow morning will be very low again (<10%), but is possible in the Estancia Basin where humidity should approach 100% around sunrise. Wednesday will be dry again with the 500-mb ridge parked over north- central NM. Temps will generally rise a degree or two from Tuesday`s highs, except across the southeast where they will be a few degrees cooler in the wake of the backdoor front. Sunny skies prevail across the entire forecast area, making it a nice day to be outside. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 137 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The upper level ridge will continue to reign over NM on Thursday with central heights staying around 589-591 decameters at 500 mb. Meanwhile the inland upper level low would be expected to be centered over AR while the potential tropical cyclone moves toward FL/GA. Surface high pressure would start nudging westward across the southern plains, just easing into far eastern NM late Thursday afternoon. Dry conditions and a light wind field aloft will keep the uneventful and tranquil conditions going Thursday with temperatures reaching somewhat of a plateau this day. Record highs of 88F at Farmington (former record 88F in 2015) and 87F at Gallup (former record of 86F in 2020) are forecast for Thursday with many other western and central zones encroaching upon daily record highs. On Friday the upper ridge is forecast to retrograde a bit westward over the Four Corners states. This will keep temperatures reaching above average in most western and central locations (generally by 5 to 10 degrees with more near-record values), but some modest cooling could occur in eastern zones as surface high pressure builds in. This will be in response to the inland low that will still be near AR on the MS river with the feature having ingested the remnants of the land falling tropical system. This easterly push into eastern NM would potentially shove a gusty gap wind into vulnerable central NM locations Friday evening. Another more subtle feature aloft to watch for will be a weak shortwave trough that could drop southward on the eastern periphery of the ridge Friday. While this shortwave looks weaker than earlier model run depictions, it could slide southward out of CO and spread mid level moisture into NM. Looking at forecast soundings, this moisture advection could lead to high-based afternoon cumulus, mostly over the mountains and adjacent highlands where weak virga showers could be observed. While no measurable rainfall would be expected, localized gusty winds could develop beneath this activity as evaporative cooling ensues. The ridge hangs around western NM and AZ into the weekend and early next week, not losing much strength. Sufficient mid level moisture looks to linger through this time for more afternoon high-based cumulus and possible virga showers. Aside from the virga threat, light to moderate breezes would prevail in most locations, and the warmer than average temperatures will persist, especially in western and central zones. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, however there is a low chance (~10%) that patchy fog develops along the lower Pecos River Valley near KROW around sunrise this morning. A backdoor front will enter this northeast between 15Z and 18Z this morning, pushing south and west through the afternoon. Briefly gusty winds are possible through the gaps of the central mountain chain between 03Z and 09Z Monday night, but winds should remain well-below AWW criteria. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 137 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for the next 7 days. A weak backdoor cold front will invade from the east today. Briefly gusty winds are possible with its passage, but the front will wash out once it reaches the Rio Grande Valley. Ridging shifts overhead the next couple days, surging temps well-above seasonal averages. Dry weather with light winds and above average temps stick around through the end of the workweek. Another backdoor front on Friday could bring enough moisture to produce isolated gusty virga showers and storms over the high terrain Friday through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 82 51 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 79 38 80 42 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 78 46 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 81 41 85 44 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 77 48 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 80 42 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 79 45 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 79 51 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 78 46 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 84 45 85 46 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 87 57 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 73 41 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 76 52 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 76 47 78 49 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 72 45 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 63 39 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 69 26 72 25 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 76 40 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 73 41 76 44 / 5 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 83 46 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 77 51 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 81 47 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 82 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 53 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 86 50 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 55 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 86 49 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 85 50 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 85 45 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 86 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 85 49 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 82 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 84 53 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 87 55 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 77 47 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 79 50 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 79 44 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 81 39 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 76 45 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 79 45 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 80 46 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 83 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 75 48 75 44 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 71 43 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 76 42 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 79 42 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 76 42 77 46 / 5 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 77 50 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 77 46 77 50 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 84 50 83 53 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 82 49 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 84 49 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 87 53 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 87 52 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 86 51 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 92 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 85 52 81 55 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 82 50 78 52 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...16