Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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772 FXUS65 KABQ 202106 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 306 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Scattered showers and storms and breezy conditions continue across NM today, with storms focused in the east. Strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern plains, with the highest confidence being across the southeast. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats with a nonzero, but low, threat for a tornado. Conditions mellow out on Sunday and into Monday, where temperatures could be as much as 20 degrees below average across far northeast areas. Shower and storm chances could return to the area on Tuesday, but forecast confidence for the middle of next week remains low. Temperatures will warm and storm chances steadily decrease going into the latter portion of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 100 kt southwesterly phased jet extends from northern Baja northeastward into southwestern Minnesota early this afternoon. This jet is the strong wind field between a deep closed low over Oceanside, CA and the monsoon high centered over TX. Hi-res and global models agree in bringing the closed low slowly eastward into southwest AZ by sunrise Saturday. The flow ahead of this feature is forecast to back or turn more southerly on Saturday, helping to continue the deep mid and low level moisture fetch into central and especially eastern NM where the NAM12 is forecasting values approaching ~ 1.75" at 18Z Saturday. At the same time, the above mentioned jet weakens somewhat at as moves over NM during the day Saturday, but remains plenty strong (~ 85 kt) for impressive bulk sheer values over eastern NM ranging between 40-55 kt Saturday afternoon. SPC made little change to the Slight Risk for east central and southeast NM for Saturday afternoon. The marginal risk covers all of eastern NM extending northwestward to the upper RGV including Taos, Arroyo Seco, Questa and Costilla. Large hail and severe winds are the main hazards but an isolated tornado remains possible. The northeast plains may struggle with instability initially in the early afternoon while the higher upper 50s and low 60s sfc dewpoints make it farther north during the mid and late afternoon. Closed low over AZ is progged to lift northeastward to over the Four Corners around sunset Saturday. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front is forecast to make its way to the southwest Saturday evening, keeping showers and thunderstorms going over the northeast third of the state Saturday evening. Dry air aloft is expected to overtake central and western NM Saturday night while lingering low level easterly flow continues to keep eastern areas cloudy and cool with areas of drizzle. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The 500mb low will propagate into the central US on Sunday, taking our recent active weather with it. Behind a backdoor front that will begin to intrude Saturday evening/Sunday morning, temperatures will be starkly below average over the CWA, with places in eastern and northeast NM being as much as a 20F departure from normal. Remnant isolated showers from our recent storm system are possible, but would be confined to the far southeast areas near the Texas border. As the front continues to push down the eastern plains and creep westward towards the central mountain chain, an east canyon wind could develop through the Rio Grande Valley Sunday evening, but is expected to remain light. West-northwest upper level flow envelopes the state on Monday and push out the cooler air from the front, bringing temperatures closer to average. Modest moisture will be present within the flow ahead of the next storm system, allowing for isolated storm chances again for the northeast. Significant model disagreement continues to rear its ugly head Monday night and beyond. Deterministic models and ensemble clusters have a poor grasp on the track and evolution of a shortwave diving south over the Rockies, which is limiting forecast confidence Tuesday. There is agreement in the potential for showers and storms returning to the area Tuesday afternoon, but vast differences in overall coverage. GFS develops showers and storms across far eastern areas before moving into Texas due to lift ahead of the shortwave over the southern High Plains. On the other hand, the ECMWF digs this shortwave further south and west eventually closing into a low centered over north central NM Tuesday evening which, combined with a backdoor front at the surface, would provide ample moisture and lift for more widespread showers and storms across much of the state. A noticeable eastward trend of these features has been apparent over the past few runs, which would favor GFS solutions of the precipitation focusing more into Texas rather than NM. NBM PoPs seemed to favor ECMWF solutions. With low confidence in the development and evolution of the feature, decided to continue to stay with NBM PoPs with only slight adjustments. Even with hefty disagreements in the latest model runs, a drying/warming trend is forecast for the end of the work week and into the weekend. Deterministic models show weak upper level flow and drier air making its way into the region due to upper level ridging over northwest Mexico. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A deep closed low over far southern California will continue to draw up monsoon moisture into eastern New Mexico through this afternoon which will continue to result in a swath of showers and thunderstorms, and some storms over east central NM may turn strong with hail, brief heavy downpours and gusty downburst winds. VFR conditions persist central and west. Breezy south winds will prevail at most terminals outside of gusty shower and storm outflow winds. Scattered showers and storms will persist through much of tonight, primarily east of the central mountain chain where local to areas of brief MVFR conditions are possible, including KTCC and KROW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 With a slow moving upper low over southern CA and the monsoon high anchored over TX, moisture will continue to stream north and northeastward over central and especially eastern NM today through Saturday. Increasing southwest winds ahead of the CA low in western and central portions of the forecast area will likely hit critical conditions for a brief time Saturday afternoon, until the backdoor front forces it back west Sunday morning. Monday continues to look dry for all but the far northeast with temperatures starting to rebound to near average levels. A high amplitude ridge of high pressure attempts to team up with the monsoon high Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in more hot weather for the Great Basin and cooler, wetter weather for much of NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 51 73 45 73 / 0 60 10 0 Dulce........................... 41 73 33 69 / 5 80 40 5 Cuba............................ 50 70 40 69 / 10 60 10 0 Gallup.......................... 42 68 36 74 / 0 50 0 0 El Morro........................ 45 67 38 71 / 0 40 0 0 Grants.......................... 44 71 37 74 / 0 30 0 0 Quemado......................... 44 70 38 72 / 0 20 0 0 Magdalena....................... 56 76 45 73 / 10 10 0 0 Datil........................... 46 71 39 71 / 0 10 0 0 Reserve......................... 44 75 39 81 / 0 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 52 78 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 43 70 33 63 / 5 80 50 10 Los Alamos...................... 55 71 45 66 / 20 60 30 0 Pecos........................... 53 70 43 66 / 40 70 40 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 69 38 63 / 10 80 70 20 Red River....................... 42 58 32 53 / 10 80 70 20 Angel Fire...................... 38 61 27 59 / 20 80 60 20 Taos............................ 48 71 36 66 / 10 70 60 5 Mora............................ 46 66 36 61 / 30 90 50 20 Espanola........................ 53 80 44 74 / 20 60 40 0 Santa Fe........................ 56 73 45 68 / 40 60 30 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 78 44 72 / 30 50 30 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 81 49 76 / 30 30 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 82 51 78 / 30 30 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 57 84 47 79 / 20 20 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 58 83 48 78 / 20 20 5 0 Belen........................... 56 84 45 79 / 20 20 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 59 83 47 79 / 20 30 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 54 83 43 79 / 20 20 0 0 Corrales........................ 59 84 48 79 / 20 30 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 56 83 45 79 / 20 20 0 0 Placitas........................ 57 80 47 75 / 30 40 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 60 81 49 78 / 20 30 10 0 Socorro......................... 63 88 50 82 / 20 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 74 44 69 / 30 50 10 0 Tijeras......................... 52 77 45 72 / 30 40 10 0 Edgewood........................ 49 77 42 72 / 30 50 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 49 78 44 73 / 40 50 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 52 73 43 65 / 50 60 20 5 Mountainair..................... 53 77 43 72 / 40 30 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 55 77 42 72 / 40 40 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 61 82 49 78 / 50 40 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 55 73 45 70 / 50 50 0 5 Capulin......................... 52 64 40 52 / 20 90 80 20 Raton........................... 50 65 42 59 / 10 90 80 20 Springer........................ 51 66 45 64 / 20 90 70 10 Las Vegas....................... 50 66 41 64 / 40 80 50 10 Clayton......................... 60 66 49 62 / 40 80 90 10 Roy............................. 55 65 47 63 / 40 90 80 10 Conchas......................... 60 72 53 69 / 60 90 70 10 Santa Rosa...................... 58 71 51 66 / 70 80 50 5 Tucumcari....................... 60 74 53 66 / 60 70 80 10 Clovis.......................... 65 80 58 69 / 30 80 70 20 Portales........................ 65 83 59 73 / 30 70 60 20 Fort Sumner..................... 62 81 56 71 / 60 80 50 10 Roswell......................... 70 91 61 81 / 30 40 20 5 Picacho......................... 60 86 50 76 / 40 50 5 0 Elk............................. 57 86 48 77 / 40 40 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...33