150
FXUS65 KABQ 262117
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
317 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Calm weather remains abundant throughout New Mexico today, as high
temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above average, mainly in
the central and western areas. Friday will see much of the same,
with the addition of virga showers across the northern mountains,
causing some isolated gusty winds. A backdoor front will also create
some gusty gap winds along the central mountain chain Friday night.
The weekend will see temperatures gradually rise each day and aside
from isolated virga showers, it will be clear and calm. Temperatures
will likely apex on Monday, with near record to record highs
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The 12Z ABQ sounding revealed a record 593dm H5 high centered over
the Land of Enchantment. Clear skies, little to no wind and well
above normal high temperatures reign supreme again today. Tonight`s
lows should be fairly similar to last night given the persistent
weather pattern. The H5 high gets shunted southwestward Friday
allowing for a modest backdoor front to swing through eastern NM and
up to the gaps of the central mountain chain. High temperatures
along and east of the central mountain chain will only fall several
degrees from today`s readings. The more notable influence will be an
influx of low-level moisture behind the front. A modest east canyon
wind at Albuquerque through the Tijeras Canyon will be likely as
well, gusting 20 to 30kts Friday evening.

As has been advertised in the long term discussion for several days
now, this moisture is expected to yield scattered virga showers
across the northern mountains Friday afternoon. Sample model
soundings at Taos reveal rather high cloud bases for these scattered
virga showers, near 500mb or 10k-12k ft AGL. Despite the relative
influx of moisture, the mixed layer will remain fairly dry indicated
by a classic inverted-V signature and DCAPE of 1000-1200 J/kg in the
sample model soundings. Strong dry downburst wind gusts will be
possible from these showers and perhaps a few stray dry lightning
strikes will be likely from this activity. Areas in and around the
Tusas, Jemez, and Sangre de Cristo Mts and adjacent valley areas
from the CO border to Santa Fe will have a shot at this Friday
afternoon. Conditions elsewhere look to stay relatively calm Friday
with this activity over northern NM clearing out during the evening
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Very little change in our weather is expected going into the
weekend. The current 593dm 500mb high will be shooed away towards AZ
on Saturday, which will drop our height levels a decameter or two,
but nothing substantial. Temperatures will consistently be 5-10F
above average, with more focus for highs being in the central and
western zones. Mid-level moisture will remain from the shortwave
that will initiate virga showers on Friday, thus Saturday will see
another chance for evaporating precipitation and sporadic gusty
winds which will mainly focus over the northern and western
mountains. Chances are slightly lower than Friday though, as
forecast soundings show a modest subsidence layer just above our
moisture from the shortwave exiting the region. Sunday into
Monday see gradual temperature increases as the 500mb high slowly
migrates back over NM, raising pressure heights. Several locations
on Monday specifically may see near record to record high
temperatures, as highs will sit 10-13F above average for the
entire CWA. NBM guidance gives Albuquerque a 75% chance to reach
90F, which is one degree below our record of 91F, set in 1979.

Monday night into Tuesday may see our first change in this upper
high pattern in the forecast period as a potential backdoor front
makes its way down the Plains. Pressure gradients are not likely to
be intense, but gusty gap winds are possible late Monday night into
Tuesday morning for the central mountain chain. Ensemble guidance
has been better at picturing this feature, giving higher confidence.
Temperatures will likely see highs drop over 10F in the eastern
areas from Monday to Tuesday. The 500mb high will continue to
drape over the Four Corners after Tuesday, raising temperatures
into the latter part of next week. Uncertainty in how the polar
jet evolves is limiting forecast confidence past Wednesday, with
model solutions diverging considerably. With that said, the high
is expected to remain near our region, signaling a dry and warm
end to next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR prevails with light prevailing winds. A modest backdoor
frontal boundary will swing through eastern NM Friday morning
bringing a northeasterly wind shift. Scattered virga showers will
be present over the northern mountains and adjacent valley areas
just beyond the end of the TAF period Friday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

No critical fire weather is forecast through the next seven days. A
modest frontal boundary swings through eastern NM Friday bringing a
northeasterly to easterly wind shift through eastern NM. Scattered
virga showers capable produce strong erratic gusty winds and a stray
dry lightning strike will be present over the northern mountains and
adjacent valley areas Friday afternoon. Another stronger backdoor
frontal boundary swings through eastern NM Tuesday bringing a
sharper drop in temperatures and an easterly wind shift through
eastern NM Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  89  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  42  86  43  84 /   0  10   0   0
Cuba............................  46  85  50  82 /   0   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  42  88  42  88 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  53  84  53  82 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  43  87  43  85 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  48  85  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  55  85  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  48  84  48  82 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  42  92  42  90 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  54  95  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  42  79  44  76 /   0  20   5   5
Los Alamos......................  56  82  55  78 /   0  10   0   0
Pecos...........................  49  82  52  78 /   0  10   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  47  79  47  77 /   0  10   5   5
Red River.......................  44  69  42  67 /   0  20   5  10
Angel Fire......................  28  74  38  72 /   0  10   0  10
Taos............................  42  82  46  80 /   0  10   0   5
Mora............................  37  79  48  75 /   0  20   0  10
Espanola........................  51  89  53  87 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  53  83  54  80 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  51  87  53  84 /   0  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  91  61  86 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  92  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  54  94  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  92  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  49  93  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  54  94  58  90 /   0   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  47  93  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  51  94  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  46  93  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  58  90  58  86 /   0   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  55  93  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  59  96  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  84  54  80 /   0   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  57  88  56  83 /   0   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  55  87  51  83 /   0   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  38  87  49  84 /   0   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  47  82  52  79 /   0   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  54  86  52  83 /   0   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  50  87  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  56  91  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  49  82  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  48  79  50  77 /   0   5   0   0
Raton...........................  43  84  49  82 /   0  10   0   0
Springer........................  42  85  49  83 /   0  10   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  45  82  49  78 /   0  10   0   5
Clayton.........................  54  85  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  51  84  52  80 /   0   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  50  89  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  51  86  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  52  87  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  57  90  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  54  92  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  50  91  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  58  94  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  54  89  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  51  89  56  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...24