Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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060 FXUS65 KABQ 201757 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1157 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A storm system over southern California will move east today and across the region Saturday, bringing breezy to locally windy conditions and chances for storms focusing across eastern NM. Some storms may become severe and produce large hail and damaging winds on Saturday across the eastern plains. The storm system will also bring cooler conditions this weekend with below normal daytime temperatures, especially across northeast NM. Quieter weather is forecast Sunday and Monday, but a disturbance will bring chances for showers and storms back to the area on Tuesday. A warming and drying trend is forecast from mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A dynamic weather pattern will unfold today into Saturday as a deep low pressure system slowly moves from the southern CA coast toward the Four Corners areas. With a prominent upper high over the Big Bend and southeastern TX, the encroaching low will lead to a strengthening gradient over NM while moisture is drawn northward into the eastern half of the state. Return flow at the surface from the Gulf of Mexico will overtake more of eastern NM to accomplish this with PWATs surging up to 1.0 to 1.4 inches while dry, breezy south southwest winds prevail in the western half of the state today. The warm, moist advection will lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms from the late morning through the evening, mainly east of a Ruidoso to Las Vegas to Raton line. While no formal convective risk is outlined for eastern NM for today, a few strong to severe cells cannot be ruled out given the healthy speed and directional shear (35-50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear), but the modest instability and lack of deep upper forcing will be the limiters that keep today from showcasing more severe storms. Showers and storms could persist and regenerate over east central NM through the late night hours tonight into Saturday morning as the upper low makes its way into AZ. Considerations for a Flood Watch were made for today over the Sacramento mountain wildfire burn scars, and while some initiation is expected over the this area, the fast storm motions and limited QPF has tipped the confidence lower for any flooding concerns today. The upper low will then lift northeastward over the Four Corners by mid afternoon Saturday with a 100 kt jet at 300 mb progged to nose its way into NM. This will certainly add more upward forcing along with increased speed shear over eastern NM where high moisture will be retained. A Slight risk for severe storms over eastern NM has already been outlined from SPC, and this looks reasonable with higher MUCAPE values of 1000-1500J/kg advertised by the HREF. Heavier QPF is also advertised by many CAMs over the east central to northeastern zones Saturday, potentially putting the HPCC wildfire burn scar at risk of flooding. Precipitation associated with the low itself would still largely remain west of the forecast area through late Saturday, keeping the focus on eastern NM. There will also be stronger wind field of south southeasterly winds in eastern NM and south southwesterly winds in western zones. An area of confluence will be juxtaposed over the Rio Grande valley, and could lead to windy conditions with gusts of 40 to 45 mph, as the southerly flow will be parallel to the valley and less inhibited by terrain. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The upper low will continue to fill and lift slowly northeast across southern CO Saturday night, with convection across northeast NM gradually diminishing. The threat for severe storms will persist through the evening hours across northeast NM. A backdoor cold front will slide southwest to the central mountain chain Sunday as the upper low ejects east out of the southern Rockies, with minimal chances for showers and isolated thunder continuing across eastern NM. Temperatures will trend down more behind the backdoor front on Sunday and be below normal, especially across northeast NM where high temperatures could be up to 20 degrees below normal. The backdoor front will result in a brief gusty east canyon wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Sunday evening, but well below advisory threshold. Warmer conditions are forecast Monday ahead of an upstream trough dropping southeast out of the Pacific NW and northern Great Basin. There continues to be significant spread among the medium range model solutions with the handling of this upper air feature and the overall synoptic weather pattern beyond Tuesday, so lower forecast confidence at this time. However, there is sufficient agreement on Tuesday that a backdoor front will interact with the approaching upper level trough/low to bring chances for showers and storms back to the forecast with at least some, albeit low, potential for burn scar flooding. Probabilities favor a warming/drying trend from mid through late next week with temperatures rising above normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A deep closed low over far southern California will continue to draw up monsoon moisture into eastern New Mexico through this afternoon which will continue to result in a swath of showers and thunderstorms, and some storms over east central NM may turn strong with hail, brief heavy downpours and gusty downburst winds. VFR conditions persist central and west. Breezy south winds will prevail at most terminals outside of gusty shower and storm outflow winds. Scattered showers and storms will persist through much of tonight, primarily east of the central mountain chain where local to areas of brief MVFR conditions are possible, including KTCC and KROW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Moisture will be drawn into eastern NM today and Saturday, leading to higher humidity along with multiplying showers, thunderstorms and increasing chances for soaking rainfall. Western areas of NM will essentially remain dry and breezy during this time with stronger south winds found in the Rio Grande valley Saturday afternoon. This could overlay some critically low humidity and gusts of 35 to 45 mph over the valley, south of Albuquerque through Socorro Saturday afternoon when rapid fire spread could be possible. The areal coverage of these critical conditions on Saturday is not all that large relative to the whole Fire Weather Zone 106, so no Red Flag statement is planned at this time. While some lingering isolated showers or storms cannot be ruled out in far east central NM Sunday, a mostly dry start to next week is expected with cooler temperatures and more relaxed winds both Sunday and Monday. A chance for a reinforcement of cooler air and moisture/showers/storms arrives in eastern NM Tuesday into Wednesday, but the forecast details beyond this time frame remain muddled due to large spread and differences among forecast models. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 85 51 73 45 / 0 0 60 10 Dulce........................... 80 41 73 33 / 10 5 80 40 Cuba............................ 80 50 70 40 / 10 10 60 10 Gallup.......................... 82 42 68 36 / 0 0 50 0 El Morro........................ 78 45 67 38 / 5 0 40 0 Grants.......................... 83 44 71 37 / 5 0 30 0 Quemado......................... 79 44 70 38 / 0 0 20 0 Magdalena....................... 83 56 76 45 / 5 10 10 0 Datil........................... 79 46 71 39 / 5 0 10 0 Reserve......................... 81 44 75 39 / 0 0 5 0 Glenwood........................ 85 52 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 73 43 70 33 / 10 5 80 50 Los Alamos...................... 78 55 71 45 / 20 20 60 30 Pecos........................... 78 53 70 43 / 40 40 70 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 75 48 69 38 / 20 10 80 70 Red River....................... 68 42 58 32 / 20 10 80 70 Angel Fire...................... 71 38 61 27 / 30 20 80 60 Taos............................ 79 48 71 36 / 20 10 70 60 Mora............................ 76 46 66 36 / 40 30 90 50 Espanola........................ 86 53 80 44 / 20 20 60 40 Santa Fe........................ 81 56 73 45 / 30 40 60 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 85 56 78 44 / 20 30 50 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 85 60 81 49 / 20 30 30 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 87 61 82 51 / 10 30 30 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 89 57 84 47 / 10 20 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 87 58 83 48 / 10 20 20 5 Belen........................... 90 56 84 45 / 10 20 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 88 59 83 47 / 10 20 30 10 Bosque Farms.................... 89 54 83 43 / 10 20 20 0 Corrales........................ 88 59 84 48 / 10 20 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 89 56 83 45 / 10 20 20 0 Placitas........................ 86 57 80 47 / 20 30 40 10 Rio Rancho...................... 87 60 81 49 / 10 20 30 10 Socorro......................... 92 63 88 50 / 10 20 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 80 54 74 44 / 20 30 50 10 Tijeras......................... 82 52 77 45 / 20 30 40 10 Edgewood........................ 81 49 77 42 / 30 30 50 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 83 49 78 44 / 40 40 50 10 Clines Corners.................. 77 52 73 43 / 50 50 60 20 Mountainair..................... 81 53 77 43 / 30 40 30 5 Gran Quivira.................... 81 55 77 42 / 40 40 40 0 Carrizozo....................... 85 61 82 49 / 50 50 40 0 Ruidoso......................... 78 55 73 45 / 70 50 50 0 Capulin......................... 80 52 64 40 / 40 20 90 80 Raton........................... 82 50 65 42 / 30 10 90 80 Springer........................ 83 51 66 45 / 40 20 90 70 Las Vegas....................... 78 50 66 41 / 50 40 80 50 Clayton......................... 85 60 66 49 / 50 40 80 90 Roy............................. 78 55 65 47 / 50 40 90 80 Conchas......................... 83 60 72 53 / 60 60 90 70 Santa Rosa...................... 81 58 71 51 / 70 70 80 50 Tucumcari....................... 87 60 74 53 / 50 60 70 80 Clovis.......................... 92 65 80 58 / 30 30 80 70 Portales........................ 93 65 83 59 / 30 30 70 60 Fort Sumner..................... 84 62 81 56 / 50 60 80 50 Roswell......................... 96 70 91 61 / 40 30 40 20 Picacho......................... 87 60 86 50 / 70 40 50 5 Elk............................. 85 57 86 48 / 60 40 40 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...33