Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
582 FXUS63 KABR 262321 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 621 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms (30 to 60 percent chance) will occur across the area tonight, then mainly across the east Monday afternoon and evening. No severe weather is expected. - Northwest winds will increase into the 15 to 30 mph range Monday. - Chances for precipitation return later this week, with a 30 to 60 percent chance Wednesday night through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are planned. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 An upper level zonal flow pattern currently over the region will give way to an approaching shortwave trough set to track across the CWA overnight and Monday. Northwest flow develops Monday evening, then another shortwave trough will drop in from the north during the overnight hours. At the surface, seeing a couple of areas of shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon across western South Dakota and in association with a weak boundary between the Missouri River and the James River Valley. All of this activity will gradually drift eastward late this afternoon into tonight. Instability and shear are minimal through the evening, so not expecting any severe weather. As the aforementioned second shortwave approaches later in the day Monday into Monday night, may see some additional precipitation develop, mainly across the eastern part of the CWA. Again, no severe weather is expected. Will see a bit of a tightening pressure gradient on Monday as well, with northwest winds increasing into the 15 to 30 mph range. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. High temperatures on Monday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows Monday night will be in the mid to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Tuesday morning an upper level low continues to move off to our east as a ridge builds into the region. This will continue through the first portion of the long term until a low starts to move in Thursday evening. Deterministic models are keeping the center of the low in southern Canada but the trough and some shortwave energy will dig down into our area. This will bring some rain chances for at least the start of the weekend. Saturday evening we transition into a westerly upper level flow pattern and that will last through the end of the period. Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the best chance for some rain as that low starts to move in. Rain chances start west river Wednesday evening (30-45%) and move west to east. Chances increase on Thursday, peaking at 45-60% across the area during the day. There is a chance for some storms Thursday evening, although it is still too far out to determine if they will become severe. 25 to 45% chances continue Friday, but start to diminish west to east Saturday morning. Temperatures will generally be around average with highs in the 70s to around 80. Days with rain chances are expected to be slightly cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds look to pick up Wednesday as a strong high pushes into the region. Gusts could exceed 40 mph west river during the afternoon. Other than that and some possible 30-35 mph gusts in higher elevation areas Thursday, winds should be around normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through Monday afternoon except in the vicinity of heavier showers or thunderstorms. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Wise