Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
856 FXAK69 PAFG 211215 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 415 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A weak shortwave will continue to propagate towards the east with only some residual showers associated with it over the eastern half of the state. An Arctic low over the Brooks Range will bring snow likely to the Eastern half of the Brooks Range through Saturday and allow for some colder air advection from the North Slope to progress southward and could bring about some snow to around 1000 ft within the Interior. Meanwhile, an occluded low pressure system moving into the Gulf early next week, and the arctic trough remaining in place, will keep the chance of rain/snow showers going through the mid part of next week. .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... Models in fair agreement with a deepening upper low over the Brooks Range and a 525 dam low over the Central Aleutians. This upper low will track eastward into the Gulf of Alaska by Monday and the Upper low over the Brooks Range will proprogate to the south through Sunday and deepen to 527 dam near the Seward Peninsula on Monday. HIgh pressure over the west coast will retrograde to the west over Russia by Sunday. Troughing will persist over the State through early next week. We will continue to use a blend for the PoPs over the E Interior and Brooks Range on Saturday. Central and Eastern Interior... Light showers will begin to increase by tomorrow morning and temperatures will continue to drop as colder air is advected from the north. It is possible that there could be some snow making it down to the valley floor for some locations, although the snow level looks to drop down to around to around 500-1000 for most locations. There could be some snowflakes mixing in for the Fairbanks area, yet will likely have no accumulating snow, perhaps only on grassy surfaces. The best chance of this looks to be Saturday night though Sunday morning. Spotty rain/snow showers will continue to be possible through the mid part of next week. The Pressure gradient tightens on Sunday, and 925 mb winds pick up from the Northeast over much of the N Interior. There could be gusts of 20 to 30 mph over higher terrain on Sunday. Winds near Delta Junction pick up as well out of the Southeast, but remain below advisory level. Winds could continue into Monday. West Coast and Western Interior... High pressure keeping things quiet for the most part over the weekend. Northeastly winds will be gusty through the Bering Strait and over the coast around 15 to 30 mph. With the colder air advection, temperatures will steadily continue to drop off and be on an overall downtrend through the mid part of next week. Upper low dropping down over the area on Monday will bring some showers to the W Interior and inland areas on Monday and Tuesday. North Slope and Brooks Range... The Arctic low will be the focus for snow likely in the E Brooks Range through Saturday. Snow expected along the Dalton Highway and to areas East of the Highway. 6 to 12 inches expected. A Winter Storm Warning is still in effect through early Sunday. Snow will taper off to light showers or Flurries on Sunday. The weak troughing will keep the possibility of snow showers going into the mid part of next week. The north slope will continue to see areas of stratus and Fog through the weekend. A weak low will move into the Beaufort Sea on Monday and could enhance more showers for the Eastern north slope and Brooks Range. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... Upper low progged to remain over the west coast through much of the week, while the Interior remains cloudy and cool with the threat of Showers. Further out towards the end of the run, the GFS is showing a strong system that moves into the Gulf of Alaska for next weekend, but there is still alot of uncertainty between models at this point in time. Will continue to monitor. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. .HYDROLOGY...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ809. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-817-854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-851. && $$