640
FXAK67 PAJK 201431
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
631 AM AKDT Mon May 20 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...A continually weakening area of
low pressure approaches the central Panhandle from the northwest
while a ridge of high pressure builds in behind it through the
period. Scattered showers from a combo of the weak low`s influence
and onshore-flow will continue to taper off to isolated
distribution, and clouds generally decrease in coverage through
the period. Winds will continue to progressively diminish to even
more benign levels through the period as the pressure gradient
continues to relax as the aforementioned low continues to weaken
and the ridge builds. Some Small Craft seas are likely today
along the Outer Coast and for the Outside Waters.

.LONG TERM.../ Tuesday through Friday night / Active pattern set
to continue for SE Alaska for the remainder of the week. Tuesday
will see widespread clearing behind the system that brought wind
and rain through Monday, with temperatures approaching 60 as a
result of daytime heating and light winds.

The next system will move into the northern Gulf on Wednesday,
with a weakening front making its way towards the panhandle
Wednesday afternoon and slowly push inland through Thursday.
Precipitation from this system is expected to be light to
moderate, with most rain coming Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. As of this forecast, model guidance continues to show a
diminishing trend in terms of winds along the front, with small
craft winds of up to 25 kt likely only along the coast with the
tightening gradient. Likewise not expecting any significant
increase in wave heights in the Gulf with this system.

Heading towards the weekend, clearing skies and drier weather once
more on Friday as another transitory ridge moves over the
Panhandle bringing onshore flow and light winds for the inner
channels.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday morning observation sites across the Panhandle
are reporting a mix of VFR and MVFR, with a few under IFR CIGS
and PAKT under LIFR. As we move through the afternoon MOS guidance
continues to highlight improvement to VFR; however, dynamics
associated with this low, along with instability in the lower
boundary layer, will lead to some productive non-TS convective
showers. Have gone pessimistic in TAFS across the Panhandle to
capture periods of MVFR CIGS and VISBY from -SHRA but will see
some VFR during Monday afternoon between -SHRA.

Monday night conditions diminish as low clouds moves along the
coast. For areas north of Icy Strait, thinking MVFR if this layer
is able to penetrate past Cross Sound, VFR if it remains west. For
areas south of Icy Strait expect MVFR from CIGS and pockets of
IFR, higher confidence as we move further south and east.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-642>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...AP

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