375
FXUS61 KALY 262333
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
733 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers this afternoon diminish from northwest to southeast
this evening as a cold front moves across the region. Skies
partially clear tonight along and north of I-90 resulting in
some fog, especially in river valleys. Canadian high pressure
builds southward tomorrow into the weekend giving us drier
weather although a few rain showers may sneak back into areas
south I-90 as our front retrogrades northward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Slow clearing from the north, having reached some of the
southern Adirondacks and Lake George region. Patchy light rain
building south from I-90 to southern VT and points south. The
rain will continue to shift slowly south through the night as
will the clearing. Some fog expected, especially in areas that
so clear. Just minor adjustments to rain chances and
temperatures through the night.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Showers dwindle this evening and end by around Midnight per
latest CAM guidance. As the cold front shifts south and eastward
late this afternoon through the western/southern Adirondacks
into the Capital District this evening, skies clear in its wake.
With dew points staying elevated and soils moist after a
soaking rainfall, fog will easily develop, especially in river
valleys this evening. Fog may turn dense in spots. While the sfc
boundary tracks through the mid-Hudson Valley by the pre-dawn
hours, the mid-level moisture/thermal gradient stalls over the
mid-Hudson Valley which will keep skies clouds. Clouds should
mitigate fog formation.

Temperatures stay mild tonight where skies are cloudy with
overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60s. Further north
where skies clear in the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and
Upper Hudson Valley, overnight lows drop into the upper 40s to
low 50s.

The sfc cold front continues pressing further into Central NJ
during the day Friday but the mid-level boundary hangs around
the mid-Hudson or Lower Hudson Valley. As Canadian high
pressure and subsidence/dry air build in the wake of our
departing closed low, early fog in river valleys will give way
to mainly sunny near and north of I-90. Skies remain partly to
mostly cloudy to the south closer. With a mild air mass still
in place aloft and a light northerly flow reducing the humidity,
temperatures will warm nicely into the low to mid 70s Friday
afternoon giving us a pleasant end to the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Our stalled sfc boundary retreats back northward Friday night
into Saturday as a closed low in the MS/TN Valley absorbs the
remnants of Helene resulting in downstream ridging building in
the mid-Atlantic. There remains uncertainty on just how far
north the boundary advances as our Canadian high slowly lifts
into northern New England; however, we do expect increasing
cloud coverage from south to north during this period. We slowly
expand slight chance POPs into the eastern Catskills, mid-
Hudson Valley and into Berkshire/Litchfield County late Friday
night into Saturday but ensemble guidance suggests incoming
showers will be light and isolated to widely scattered as
moisture and the boundary enters into an area of stronger
confluence established across the Northeast.

Despite increasing clouds on Saturday, temperatures will still
warm into the low to mid 70s as the mild air mass remains in
place aloft. Humidity also gradually increases in response to
the retreating boundary.

We remain mostly cloudy Saturday night but the potential for
showers decreases through the night as our boundary shifts
southward in response to high pressure in the Midwest/Great
Lakes builds into the Northeast. Temperatures remain mild only
dropping into the mid to upper 50s thanks to cloud coverage.

Mostly cloudy skies start the day on Sunday but should give way
to increasing sun in the afternoon from north to south as high
pressure and subsidence from the Great Lakes continues to build
eastward. Temperatures remain rather mild/comfortable with highs
again rising into the low to mid 70s with upper 60s in the hill
towns/higher terrain.

Gradually clearing skies continues into Sunday night with
temperatures cooling in response to the drier air mass filtering
southward. Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 50s with the
hill towns and higher terrain in the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pleasant day to start the work week as high pressure builds at
the sfc and upper level ridging amplifies over the Northeast.
We should enjoy mostly sunny skies with temperatures warming
into the low to mid 70s. High pressure slides to the east
Monday night into Tuesday becoming anchored over northern New
England. This will keep an onshore flow in place and
temperatures should cool in response to the incoming marine air
mass. Tuesday highs only in the mid to upper 60s with around 70
in the valley.

Our next cold front arrives during the middle of the week which
will result in our next chance for rain. Still uncertainty on
the exact timing and moisture content but had enough confidence
to increases POPs to chance Tuesday through Wednesday night.

Canadian high pressure builds in its wake for the end of the
week leading to another period of dry and seasonable weather.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 60s with overnight lows
cooling into the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KGFL will have intervals of LIFR ceilings as lots of low level
moisture in the area and there should be IFR fog developing
there after midnight, continuing through about 13Z. At KALB,
KPOU and KPSF, ceilings hovering between about 800 feet and 1100
feet, so there will be intervals of MVFR/IFR ceilings but rain
is light enough that including just VCSH.

Some clearing is building south and the IFR/MVFR ceilings should
break up around midnight, with ceilings becoming VFR. Some fog
may form due to the low level moisture in place, and an LIFR
ceiling cannot be ruled out if more widespread fog does form.
Will amend if thicker and more widespread fog does form.

By about 13Z, all TAF sites should be VFR and VFR continues
through the afternoon.

Winds will be variable less than 6 Kt this evening, becoming
near calm tonight. Winds will then become northerly around 3-5
Kt on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...NAS/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...NAS/JPV