Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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214 FXUS61 KALY 261549 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1149 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers into the afternoon diminish from northwest to southeast as a cold front moves across the region. Some periods of moderate rain are possible south of I-90 this afternoon ahead of the front. Skies partially clear tonight behind the boundary resulting in some patchy fog, especially along and north of I-90. Drier weather returns tomorrow with mostly dry weather then expected through the weekend. Rain chances will once again increase by midweek as the next cold front approaches the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 11am, areas of rain showers continue to overspread much of eastern NY and western New England as GOES16 water vapor imagery shows our upper level closed parent low slowly tracking through Ontario with its attendant cold front pressing southeastward through western NY/the Tug Hill. A jet streak also looks to develop on the southern periphery of the closed low. Meanwhile, the overall synoptic pattern across the Eastern CONUS shows a closed low spinning over the MS Valley with a strong anticyclone off the Southeast U.S coast while Hurricane Helene tracks northward through the Gulf towards the Florida panhandle. See hurricanes.gov for more info on Helene. This set-up supports strong southerly winds funneling moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the Northeast with a plume of 1 - 1.75" PWATs nosing ahead of the boundary. As such, latest SPC mesoscale analysis also shows enhanced 925 - 850 hPa moisture transport vectors directed along and ahead of the incoming cold front with dew points across of the local area in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The 12 UTC ALY sounding also shows impressive PWATs for late September standards at 1.64 inches. The moisture rich environment ahead of the incoming front combined with the slow movement of the closed low/boundary will allow showers to continue developing and spreading across the region well into the afternoon. It will take until 19 - 21 UTC before showers finally start to diminish from northwest to southeast as the front sweeps through, first ending in the western/southern Adirondacks before showers end in the Capital Region by the P.M rush hour. Enhanced upper level divergence in the equatorward entrance region of the aforementioned jet streak within the moisture rich environment looks to support some increased rainfall rates this afternoon into early evening in the eastern Catskills into the mid-Hudson Valley and Berkshire/Litchfield County. Latest CAMS support this especially the NAM/HRRR with the HREF probabilistic guidance showing 60 - 70% chance for >0.50" in 3-hours between 18 and 21 UTC. The boundary slows down as it presses south of I-90 and becomes oriented west-east. This will allow showers to linger and continue past sunset into this evening for the mid-Hudson Valley, eastern Catskill into western New England before the wind shift boundary catches up and kicks the showers out of the area by Midnight. Overall, this beneficial, soaking rain will result in total QPF amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50" from the Capital District into the southern/western Adirondacks with 0.50 to 1.00" south of I-90. High temperatures today will be limited to the low to mid 60s thanks to widespread cloud coverage and showers but elevated dew points will keep it feeling muggy. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mainly dry and warm conditions expected through the short term as high pressure takes hold of the area. Latest models do hint at light rain associated with the outer bands of a weakening Hurricane Helene lifting north into southern portions of our fcst area on Saturday and Sunday. Will have to watch trends as an increase in pops may be necessary both days if current model trends continue, although much of any precipitation looks to largely remain south of the Capital District. Otherwise, expect highs in the low to mid 70s through the period with lows in the lower to middle 50s, with low 40s likely across the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Similar to the short term, dry and warm conditions will start the period as high pressure remains in control and the remnants of Hurricane Helene spin to our south across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. Eventually however, precipitation chances look to increase by late Tuesday and Wednesday as the next cold front approaches from the west. Temperatures will start above normal both Monday and Tuesday with more seasonal values expected by Wednesday thanks to increased precipitation chances and associated cloud cover. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue through the morning hours as areas of showers continue to move ENE across the region. Ceilings are expected to improve to MVFR by this afternoon with TEMPO IFR conditions in areas of steadier rain. Showers are expected to diminish from west to east between 21Z and 03Z. Surface winds are expected to be less than 10 knots throughout the forecast period. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gitro/Speciale NEAR TERM...Gitro/Speciale SHORT TERM...Gitro LONG TERM...Gitro AVIATION...Humphrey