Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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120 FXUS64 KAMA 311146 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 646 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 As of this writing, the coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms seen on radar is far less than this time Thursday morning as it appears the atmosphere may be fairly well worked over from the more widespread showers and storms that developed Thursday afternoon and evening. That said, once the precipitation from this morning either dissipates or moves out of the area, the atmosphere should have sufficient time to recover from late this morning onward through the afternoon hours. If that occurs, then expect more showers and storms to form over the higher terrain of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico aided by the passage of another minor upper level shortwave trof embedded in the overall west northwest flow pattern. These showers and storms would then track across the OK and TX Panhandles very late this afternoon through tonight. A few storms will have the potential to become severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards given steep mid level lapse rates, plenty of available moisture, an unstable atmosphere, and some shear. Heavy rainfall with any of the strongest storms may also result in flooding or flash flooding. SPC Day 1 Outlook seems plausible based on latest available short range and hi-res model guidance. For Saturday and Saturday night, another minor upper level shortwave trof embedded in the overall quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected to move across the region later that afternoon and evening. With plenty of moisture in place along with sufficient daytime heating and corresponding atmospheric instability and sufficient shear values, expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon along and east of the leeside surface trof axis over the higher terrain to the west of the forecast area. These storms should then move eastward across the forecast area later Saturday afternoon and night. A few storms may become severe given favorable parameters, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. In addition, heavy rainfall from the strongest storms may result in flooding or flash flooding. 02 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The threat for thunderstorms diminishes somewhat both in pop values and areal coverage for Sunday and Monday as heights and mid level temperatures begin to rise across the southern high plains. Tuesday through Thursday appear to be dry areawide as upper level ridging builds over the region. The warmest day of the extended forecast periods will likely be on Tuesday afternoon, with high temperatures approaching or exceeding 100 degrees across parts of the region. NBM temperatures and pops fit the above scenario and were incorporated into the appropriate grids. 02 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 For the 12Z TAFs, a few light showers near KAMA and KDHT should diminish this morning. Otherwise, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop very late this afternoon into tonight across the area, and have included mention at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA during this time period. Based on latest model guidance timing, the showers and storms should be east of the terminal sites by around 06Z. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 82 60 86 62 / 20 30 30 30 Beaver OK 82 59 88 61 / 20 50 30 40 Boise City OK 80 54 86 59 / 40 40 40 30 Borger TX 85 62 90 64 / 20 40 30 30 Boys Ranch TX 85 60 91 62 / 20 30 30 30 Canyon TX 82 59 87 61 / 20 30 30 40 Clarendon TX 80 60 84 61 / 30 30 20 40 Dalhart TX 81 55 87 58 / 30 40 30 30 Guymon OK 82 56 87 59 / 20 40 40 40 Hereford TX 84 59 89 61 / 20 30 30 30 Lipscomb TX 82 60 86 62 / 30 40 20 40 Pampa TX 81 60 86 63 / 20 30 30 40 Shamrock TX 81 61 85 62 / 30 30 20 40 Wellington TX 82 62 85 63 / 40 30 20 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...02