544
FXUS64 KAMA 022317
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
617 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Another round of rain showers and thunderstorms remain on tap for
the panhandles as ample moisture and instability remain over the
area. Currently a dry line is forming in the western panhandles
to the west of Amarillo which coupled with old outflows from this
morning should act as the point of initiation for the rain showers
and thunderstorms. The start time for these is likely to be during
the mid to late afternoon hours as heating maximizes and a trough
passes across the region. There is indications that a cap is also
forming over the region which will help to limit some of the
convection allowing for more isolated thunderstorms to occur. Any
thunderstorms that occurs today may turn into supercells as the
environment shows current shear values of 30 to 40 kts and cape of
3500 to 5000 j/kg powerful. This would support large hail
formation and damaging winds with even a tornado or two being
possible. The moisture amounts are indicative that at least
isolated flash flooding may occur as rain rates from the strongest
storms can be very high. The rain showers and thunderstorms will
progress with the trough in a W to E fashion across the
panhandles through the evening. They may end early in the SE as
convection this morning could have produced a more stable
environment there. The moisture and instability will shift ever
eastward so be the late evening to overnight hours the rain
showers and thunderstorms are likely to depart the area.

Monday should see mainly fairer and drier conditions as the
moisture will have shunted off to the east. There will still be a
very low chance that enough moisture is retained in far eastern
panhandles to spark off a rain shower or thunderstorm. Even if
this moisture is retained the overall environment is likely to
become caped making it even harder for rain showers and
thunderstorms to form. Given the very low chance and the cap these
rain showers and thunderstorms are currently not reflected within
the forecast. Otherwise it will be a hot day with lighter winds
not atypical for summer.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Tuesday will be on the hot side behind a weak front as a sfc low
dips south in the wake of an upper trough. A northerly breeze will
keep highs cooler in the north, but strong daytime heating should
still take place through the day. Current NBM guidance has highs
ranging from low 90s in the northern Panhandles to upper 90s
around 100 degrees in the southern Texas Panhandle. While this
gradient is likely to exist, some guidance suggests temperatures
will ultimately be a few degrees cooler or at least shunted
further south. Regardless, warm conditions in the 90s are expected
Tue-Thu with upper level ridging in place.

It still looks like we could be greeted with chances of showers
and storms once again later this week towards the weekend. While
the broad synoptic pattern looks to favor continued ridging,
latest suites of model data continue to hint at moisture return
and subtle perturbations within northwest flow capable of
diurnally driven convection Fri-Sun. Details are still unclear so
check back as changes to the long term outlook are made.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

This afternoon and evening another round of rain showers and
thunderstorms is passing across the panhandles from W to E. KAMA
and KGUY are likely to be impacted by these storms in the early
evening. A few of the storms can become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Even tornados
cannot be ruled out. Winds will be gusty from the south through
the evening before becoming weaker during the overnight hours.
Monday will see a boundary pass through the panhandles during the
mid morning shifting the winds at least briefly to the NW however
the winds will remain weak.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                63  96  63  98 /  30   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  63  93  64  93 /  50  10   0  10
Boise City OK              56  91  59  91 /  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                  65  98  65 100 /  30   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              61  97  62  99 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  61  96  61  98 /  20   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               63  95  63  98 /  50   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 57  93  56  94 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  60  92  61  93 /  30   0   0   0
Hereford TX                61  97  61 100 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                64  93  65  95 /  40  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   63  95  64  96 /  40  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                65  95  63  98 /  50  10  10   0
Wellington TX              66  96  64 100 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98