Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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669 FXUS64 KAMA 231126 AAA AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 626 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Thunderstorms possible in the southeast along a cold front. Storms should stay below severe levels. && .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Upper level low that brought us all of the rain over the weekend will continue to shear apart as it moves northeast through the Midwest. Next upper level trough is expected to drop south- southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies and into northern Missouri/southern Iowa by late Tuesday afternoon. The flow over the Panhandles will be northerly on the back side of this trough. A vort max is expected to move through this flow and it is expected to clip our eastern areas Tuesday afternoon. This vort max coupled with a cold front may provide enough lift to produce showers and thunderstorms across the southeast Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The upper level trough to our northeast is expected to close off into an upper level low by Wednesday night and it is expected to get cutoff from the upper flow. Then the upper low is expected engulf a hurricane that moves northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will remain parked over the central and southern Rockies through the period. The Panhandles will remain in a northerly flow between these two upper level features. This upper level pattern should keep the Panhandles dry Wednesday through Sunday and it will keep high temperatures around or just above average. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Skies are expected to remain VFR. Light and variable winds this morning will become southerly around 8 to 10 knots this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 78 55 84 53 / 0 0 20 0 Beaver OK 73 48 79 49 / 0 0 10 0 Boise City OK 76 50 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 81 54 87 53 / 0 0 10 0 Boys Ranch TX 79 52 84 51 / 0 0 10 0 Canyon TX 77 53 84 51 / 0 0 20 0 Clarendon TX 76 54 86 55 / 0 0 20 10 Dalhart TX 76 49 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 75 47 79 47 / 0 0 10 0 Hereford TX 80 53 85 52 / 0 0 10 0 Lipscomb TX 75 52 83 52 / 0 0 20 0 Pampa TX 77 53 83 52 / 0 0 20 10 Shamrock TX 76 54 86 55 / 0 0 20 20 Wellington TX 78 55 88 57 / 0 0 20 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...15