Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
546 FXUS63 KAPX 260945 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 545 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonally warm through most of the weekend - Rain chances Sunday through mid week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Clear and quiet thru tonight with above normal high temps today... High Impact Weather Potential...None. Large area of high pressure remains sprawled across the Central US early this morning...including the Western Great Lakes region. Strong subsidence combined with dry air thru the column is resulting in clear skies across all of Northern Michigan. Some patchy fog/low stratus has developed as a result of the clear skies and calm winds early this morning...as temps cool thru the 50s and into the 40s. Broad high pressure will remain centered over Wisconsin and Michigan for the next 24 hours (at least). Aside from some patchy fog/low stratus early this morning and again late tonight...clear skies and quiet conditions will remain the rule thanks to strong subsidence and dry air remaining overhead. High temps this afternoon will around 10 degrees above normal...topping out in the mid to upper 70s. Low temps tonight will cool back into the mid 40s to around 50 degrees. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 An strong and large upper level ridge continues to dominate the western U.S. Friday and into the weekend. Higher upper level heights bleed into northern MI, leading to warmer temperatures. This will allow afternoon high temperatures to reach into the 70s through Monday with overnight seasonally mild overnight low temperatures (high 40s to low 50s). Starting Saturday, Helene will have transitioned into an upper level closed low over KY/TN, and could aid in some moisture to seep in from the southeast. Low chances for rain, with clouds likely near Saginaw Bay Saturday. Higher heights will continue to move overhead Sunday as an upper low starts to put pressure on it from the west (over Canada), according to the global deterministic GFS. The deterministic ECMWF shows the closed low with tropical moisture lingering a little longer over OH/IN, which leads to clouds and intermittent light rain over northern MI starting Sunday. Taking a look at ensembles, 37% of the main global members show the closed low lingering over OH/IN Sunday and even creeping into southern MI by Monday. This scenario leads to intermittent rain and clouds Sunday through mid week next week. 25% of members build in the higher heights, which leads to sunny and warm. The forecast leans towards the higher probability, especially since the upper ridge axis (over northern MI) will be displaced from the center (still over the southwest U.S.) Sunday. Nonetheless, any rain that does fall should not accumulate to much as northern MI remains too far north from the forcing mechanisms and deeper moisture at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 545 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Aside from some early morning patchy fog/low stratus...prevailing conditions will remain VFR today and tonight as strong high pressure remains firmly in control of the wx across Northern Michigan. Surface winds will remain westerly under 10 kts. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MLR LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...MLR