Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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933 FXUS63 KAPX 250300 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues tonight, few rumbles of thunder? - Quiet weather for the rest of the week into the weekend - Well above normal high temperatures into early next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Wide swath of showery activity will continue to move north and northeast through the night in response to lift in the form of upper/sfc low pressure system. Evening 00Z sounding is rather impressive for this time of year, with deep saturation and FZL ~10kft. Thus, any of the more robust showers could produce some efficient rains. Minimal instability but enough for a few rumbles of thunder will be possible, mainly east of 75 and close to the Lake Huron shoreline. Otherwise, saturated and foggy conditions through the morning hours, with gradual clearing from west to east through the day on Wednesday. Many more details below. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Developing low pressure to our southwest over IL...as additional energy continues to dig into the Mid MS Valley just to its west. Focused band of rain expected to continue to hang out near the 131 corridor this afternoon into this evening along a subtle inverted trough axis...but eastward motion of the overall pattern suggests this will ultimately shift eastward as well overnight...with surface low expected to track into the Thumb and turn ever so slightly northward into Lake Huron going into Wednesday...before departing the region. Best chance for some rumbles of thunder over NE Lower this evening...where guidance soundings suggest better instability will be present. Rainy/dreary conditions expected to continue over much of the region (though the EUP could remain largely quiet)...with potential for some fog to develop again as winds should remain on the lighter side tonight with the trough axis passing through. Improving conditions expected Wednesday following departure of trough axis during the day...as high pressure begins to build back into the area. Still seasonable Wednesday, with highs largely in the 60s. Primary Forecast Concerns: Continued focus of rainfall over the 131 corridor toward Lake MI just south of our area has produced upwards of 1-2 inches thus far over parts of SW Lower...and will have to keep an eye on this going forward...as it may lead to increased rainfall totals over parts of Manistee/Wexford counties if it makes it in there this afternoon/tonight. Do think there will be some rain over this way through the remainder of the daylight hours into early tonight...though the great uncertainty is in how much of the rain ends up getting squeezed out over us...largely related to residence time over any areas. Currently thinking the slightly more progressive idea this evening compared to the current setup just to our southwest will keep rainfall totals from being as dramatic as elsewhere...but will be something to keep an eye on overnight. Meanwhile...NW-SE oriented band of precip stretching from Oscoda toward Atlanta this afternoon has been rather persistent the last hour or so...and do think this kind of thing could try to persist over NE Lower and parts of the EUP...and could become enhanced as deeper moisture slips overhead going into tonight, although do have some concerns that the incoming mid/high clouds could reduce the amount of diurnal heating/instability that has been playing into the Sunrise Side activity. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: That about puts a wrap on our "active" weather pattern, though some spots saw very little rainfall over the last few days. Strong ridging currently across the west coast moves east and folds over across the Great Lakes late this week into this weekend. Meanwhile, extended guidance is in good agreement that an upper level low sets up shop across the Tennessee Valley later this week. The interaction between this upper level low, tropical moisture from the tropical system moving through the Gulf of Mexico and the ridge over us is rather complex. The upper level low could eventually head north but it could also fall apart or turn off to the east before it reaches this far north. A better chance for rain is likely from a northern stream short wave approaching from the northwest early next week. Due to uncertainty, will continue with slight chance pops for later Sunday but wouldn`t be surprised if it took until Monday night or Tuesday before the region sees its next actual rainfall. Temperatures will be well above normal (by 10 to 15 degrees) with highs in the 70s to near 80 into Sunday (may as well enjoy it while you still can). Comfortable at night with lows in the 40s to low 50s. It does look like it will eventually turn cooler as we head into the middle of next week (which is just beyond the scope of this forecast). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ISO to SCT SHRA expected the rest of tonight and into the morning hrs on Wednesday. ISO TSRA possible, mainly east of I-75, and close to the Lake Huron Shoreline. Best chance to see ISO TSRA will be for KAPN between 04-09Z, but low confidence iat this time, thus currently no mention of VCTS, but something to monitor. Due to the saturated conditions, mix of BR/FG tonight with BKN- OVC 003-010 CIGs. Mix of IFR to LIFR CIGs and VIS most locations tonight, gradually improving through the day on Wednesday with dry and VFR conditions taking hold once more. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JLD SHORT TERM...FEF LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...JLD