012
FXUS63 KAPX 301752
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
152 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional small chances for showers and thunderstorms this
  weekend into next week.

- Temperatures gradually warm through the weekend, peaking in
  the 70s and 80s Monday and beyond.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

No changes to the ongoing forecast with 1026 mb surface high
pressure over the region providing mainly clear skies,
seasonably warm temperatures and light winds this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

The bottom line of the short term of the forecast is that very
quiet weather is anticipated, along with seasonable temperatures.

In the bigger picture, upper-level troffing extends from eastern
Canada southwest along the Appalachian Mountains. Upstream,
ridging extends from the southern Plains northeast into Hudson
Bay. The western Great Lakes region lies in the generally
neutral upper-level flow pattern between these two axes. At the
surface, high pressure is centered just west of the forecast
area, placing the area under light/dry northerly flow.

The upper and surface pattern will only shift slightly east
during the forecast period, providing minimal change to the
current conditions. Slowly rising upper-level heights support
temperatures warming back to near normal levels today and weak
low-level return flow developing on the back side of the surface
high will keep temperatures a touch warmer tonight than they
are currently.

Otherwise cloud cover will be minimal/non-existent, and winds
will be light enough to allow for lake breeze development.
Relative humidity values in the afternoon will be quite dry once
again, but light winds and post greenup conditions should
preclude significant fire danger today.

Look for temperatures today to top out around 70 away from the
coasts, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

500mb ridge will be overhead by Friday morning, with surface high
pressure reflection holding strong over northern Ontario moving east
and then south off the Carolinas. Result will be the commencement of
southerly flow, drawing in warmer and slightly more moist air to the
region. Highs set to spike well into the 70s by Friday. Ridge axis
clears to the east, and the feature that was driving the amplifying
ridging, which is a trough over the Canadian Prairies, will largely
flatten out and produce a steady WSW to ENE zonal flow over the
upper Great Lakes. Surface low associated with this trough will
occlude heavily and close off over northern Saskatchewan, resulting
in the weakening of the approaching frontal boundary as it moves
into the Great Lakes. Moisture return will be meager in conjunction
with the front, resulting in some scattered showers and storms later
in the day Saturday. Cloud cover will considerably increase owing to
a slow moving surface low (with origins from expected MCSs over
Texas and Oklahoma later tonight) riding the east coast ridge into
the southern Great Lakes. Result will be slightly cooler temps
Saturday. This compact system should track well to our south, taking
much of the rain with it, but could bring a few more showers to the
Saginaw Bay region. Beyond this, ridging builds back into the
picture Sunday and into Monday, and with rising 850mb temps amid
renewed southerly flow , looks like temps spike well into the 80s
across northern lower and upper 70s in the eastern U.P. A more
robust wave (and surface low / cold front) moves into the Great
Lakes later Monday into Tuesday, likely bringing the next
appreciable chance of showers and thunder.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain Chances this Weekend into Next Week: Meager forcing and
moisture return will make instability development quite a chore for
the weekend, so expecting much of the time to be dry, albeit with
some cloud cover for Saturday. Will keep the theme from previous
forecaster and remove thunder wording Saturday. Aformentioned more
potent wave will pass through Monday night, and with guidance
bringing better dewpoints (more in the order of the 50s and perhaps
low 60s) should bring us a better shot of showers and thunder.
Persistent ridging regime set to remain in place even behind this
system, with potential for another wave quickly on its heels to
intrude into the upper Midwest will keep dewpoints elevated in the
50s and 60s amid upper 70s to mid 80s temps, prolonging shower and
thunder potential into Tuesday and beyond. At this time, still a lot
of uncertainty to dive into the intensity / frequency of these
storms given this is still 5-7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR cigs/vsbys expected through the taf period. The one possible
exception would be some patchy ground fog late tonight but that
is not expected at this time. Perhaps some cirrus toward the end
of the taf period. Winds are expected to be light overall, but
with gusty lake breezes possible during the afternoons.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJS
SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...AJS