963
FXUS61 KBGM 261412
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1012 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will taper off from west to east this afternoon. A
few showers can linger through this evening across Northeast
Pennsylvania and the Southern Catskills. High pressure and
drier weather conditions return Friday through the weekend along
with slightly above normal high temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1010 AM Update:

Extensive cloud cover has limited any instability and the
expectation is that this will continue to be the case through
the afternoon. As a result, removed thunder chances for the
majority of the area for today into this evening, but kept in
mention of isolated thunderstorms possible across the Poconos-
Catskills this afternoon into this evening for now. Otherwise,
aside from some minor adjustments to PoPs, the forecast remains
on track and the previous discussion remains valid.

425 AM Update:

Plenty of clouds are around to start this morning and with a
moist southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front, there
are some spotty showers and areas of drizzle. Ahead of the
frontal boundary is a more well defined line of showers skirting
the northern Finger Lakes, Syracuse Metro and western Mohawk
Valley. Over the next few hours, showers are expected to become
more widespread as the front continues to press east. Bulk shear
values are pretty strong across CNY this morning around 40-50
knots, but instability is weak, so thunder chances seem pretty
low. Farther to the south across NE PA and the Catskills, shear
values are weaker, around 20-30 knots with CAPE values projected
at 400-800 J/kg late this morning through the evening, so any
thunderstorm activity does look to be isolated. With PWAT values
between 1.50-1.75 inches, there can be some localized downpours
through about 18Z, then drier begins to start to press in from
the north and west.

Showers are expected to taper off from west to east through the
early to mid afternoon hours. However, the cold front does look
to slow down and perhaps even stall for a time near or just
south of NE PA, which can linger some spotty showers mainly
through the evening hours tonight over NE PA and even the
southern Catskills. Dry conditions are expected over the rest of
the area tonight as high pressure builds in from the north and
west. If there is enough clearing later on tonight, some patchy
valley fog may try to form over CNY, but high clouds are
expected to linger. Highs today are expected to range from the
mid 60s to the low 70s, with the Wyoming Valley reaching the mid
70s. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 50s, with northern
Oneida County dropping back into the mid and upper 40s.

High pressure will lead to mostly dry conditions Friday.
Guidance does show some moisture pushing back northward later in
the day that may lead to a small chance of shower over portions
of NE PA, mainly Luzerne County. Highs Friday are expected to
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM Update

A portion of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will get ejected
northward toward our area heading into the upcoming weekend.
This will mainly be in the form of mid and high level moisture,
which will bring several layers of clouds to the region Friday
night with some light rain showers also possible across NE PA
and perhaps the NY Southern Tier. A remnant band of mid level
(700mb) moisture remains in place over the region during the day
on Saturday as Helene gets captured and absorbed into the upper
level low over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region. There will not
be much lift, or moisture above the 700mb level...therefore
expect mostly cloudy skies with a few sprinkles or light showers
possible. Temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s Friday
night, warming into the mid-60s to lower 70s Saturday
afternoon...Syracuse, Utica and Rome will be closer to 75 where
more filter sunshine is in the forecast.

By Saturday night our area is still on the northern fringe of
the slow moving upper level low over the Ohio Valley. This will
keep skies mainly cloudy with a slight chance for a shower or
two from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA; mild once again with
overnight lows in the 50s to around 60. There are some model
differences for Sunday, as the latest 00z GFS would bring more
rain showers, perhaps even steadier rain to NE PA. Meanwhile the
00z ECMWF and latest NBM are on the drier side, with just a
slight chance for a shower or two...leaned the official forecast
toward the drier model solutions considering the layers of dry
air and upper level sinking motion in the forecast soundings.
There will still be plenty of clouds around, but perhaps some
filtered sunshine also at time. Warm temperatures in the
mid-60s to mid-70s expected areawide. Our area remains split
between high pressure over southern New England the Ohio Valley
low pressure system for Sunday night. This setup looks to keep
the majority of the forecast area dry, under partly cloudy
skies. Slightly cooler overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
400 AM Update

This period starts off with mainly dry weather on Monday, with a
mix of sun and clouds...can`t rule out a stray shower over the
far western portion of the CWA as the slow moving, spinning
upper level low lumbers eastward.

By Monday night and Tuesday, the upper level low opens up into a
trough but spreads enough deeper moisture into the forecast
area to bring upper end chance PoPs (50%) for periods of rain
showers. QPF amounts should be generally on the lighter side,
but exact amounts are uncertain this far out in time. Additional
upper level energy dives toward the region heading into midweek
from the upper Great Lakes region. This will help swing a cold
front through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will
keep shower chances and mostly cloudy skies in the forecast
through Wednesday. It will also be cooler, with highs in the
upper 50s to mid-60s by Wednesday. Wednesday night looks to be
the coolest night of the upcoming week as a surface highs builds
into the area...lows dip down into the 40s areawide. High
pressure looks to finally move back over the region on Thursday,
bringing a change in the weather pattern back to mostly sunny
and mild weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread showers in advance of a cold front are leading to
varying conditions with mainly a mix of MVFR/Fuel-alt ceilings.
While BGM is below alt. mins, rain showers may mix the low cloud
deck at times back to IFR levels. Showers can be locally heavy
through about 15Z which can lead to IFR or worse visibility at
times, then are expected to taper off over the CNY terminals by
about 18Z. The cold front may slow down or even stall over NE
PA before it pushes south of the area, which can lead to some
additional showers through the evening for AVP. There is also
the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm through this
afternoon. While AVP seems to have the best chance of an
isolated storm, confidence is too low to include in the TAF at
this time.

Winds are expected to shift today from the south-southeast to
the north-northwest by the afternoon, but should remain fairly
light at all terminals.

Slowly improving ceilings are expected for most terminals later
this afternoon and evening. While there should be enough clouds
lingering later tonight to lead to a low potential of fog,
soundings due suggest the best potential for it to form is at
RME.


.Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR, but valley fog is
possible at KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/DK
NEAR TERM...BJG/DK
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...DK