Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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444 FXUS61 KBGM 230811 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 411 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered rain showers will move through Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania today, lasting through tonight. Relatively active pattern continues this week with a chance of rain showers every day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 340 AM Update... A weak shortwave will bring rain showers across Central NY and NE PA today and through tonight, with accompanying gusty southeast winds. Showers will progress west to east, reaching areas east of I-81 by late morning/early afternoon. Rainfall amounts will likely stay under a quarter of an inch, but there may be some brief, more intense rainfall with some showers. Temperatures become more seasonable today, expected to be in the high 50s to mid 60s. Overnight temperatures will be the same as it has been the past few nights; mid to high 50s. Tuesday temperatures increase slightly to the low to high 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 410 AM Update... An increasingly amplified upper level pattern will take shape through mid-week as a deep trough cuts off into a closed low over the mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday night, while an upper level ridge axis extends across the east coast. We`ll be in active and increasingly moist southwesterly flow aloft, with several embedded disturbances bringing rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Surface high pressure over New England will continue to feed drier air in the low levels from the east and northeast. This will keep precip chances highest across areas west of I-81 before midnight Tuesday night, but thereafter the moisture wins out, and high PoPs look to overspread the area through Wednesday morning. Showers will become more widely scattered with dry spells early Wednesday, but will increase towards the afternoon and overnight hours. High temperatures will run a few degrees below normal Wednesday, with highs mostly in the 60s area-wide. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 410 AM Update... Another complex blocking pattern takes shape for the end of the week, with our cutoff low over the mid-Mississippi Valley, and ridging off the southeast U.S. coast expected to determine the eventual path of a potential tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. But upper level ridging over the western U.S. looks to build across the Upper Midwest, north of the closed low, with the tropical system eventually phasing with the closed low. Some showers will be departing the area Thursday, after which the blocking pattern looks to keep our area dry through the weekend. Caution is urged given the complex pattern and interactions at play, but there`s fairly good model agreement in keeping precip with the tropical system and closed upper low well to our southwest. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to last the next couple of hours for the majority of terminals before rain showers and low ceilings begin moving in from the west. Through the afternoon, all terminals will see conditions worsen to MVFR/fuel alt, with various initial start times, but all are expected to be impacted by rain showers, gusty south-southeasterly winds, and MVFR/fuel alt ceilings. Currently, we don`t anticipate conditions worsening to IFR, but ELM and ITH had hints of a small possibility towards the afternoon hours, but confidence is too low to include worsening conditions. As showers move into terminals, there may be brief periods of IFR conditions as heavier, more intense rainfall occurs over a terminal periodically. .Outlook... Monday Night Through Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers. Wednesday through Friday...Generally, unsettled with VFR ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing showers and a chance of thunderstorms each day. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...JTC/KL SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...KL