Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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729 FXUS61 KBGM 261748 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 148 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers will taper off from west to east this afternoon. A few showers can linger through this evening across Northeast Pennsylvania and the Southern Catskills. High pressure and drier weather conditions return Friday through the weekend along with slightly above normal high temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1010 AM Update: Extensive cloud cover has limited any instability and the expectation is that this will continue to be the case through the afternoon. As a result, removed thunder chances for the majority of the area for today into this evening, but kept in mention of isolated thunderstorms possible across the Poconos- Catskills this afternoon into this evening for now. Otherwise, aside from some minor adjustments to PoPs, the forecast remains on track and the previous discussion remains valid. 425 AM Update: Plenty of clouds are around to start this morning and with a moist southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front, there are some spotty showers and areas of drizzle. Ahead of the frontal boundary is a more well defined line of showers skirting the northern Finger Lakes, Syracuse Metro and western Mohawk Valley. Over the next few hours, showers are expected to become more widespread as the front continues to press east. Bulk shear values are pretty strong across CNY this morning around 40-50 knots, but instability is weak, so thunder chances seem pretty low. Farther to the south across NE PA and the Catskills, shear values are weaker, around 20-30 knots with CAPE values projected at 400-800 J/kg late this morning through the evening, so any thunderstorm activity does look to be isolated. With PWAT values between 1.50-1.75 inches, there can be some localized downpours through about 18Z, then drier begins to start to press in from the north and west. Showers are expected to taper off from west to east through the early to mid afternoon hours. However, the cold front does look to slow down and perhaps even stall for a time near or just south of NE PA, which can linger some spotty showers mainly through the evening hours tonight over NE PA and even the southern Catskills. Dry conditions are expected over the rest of the area tonight as high pressure builds in from the north and west. If there is enough clearing later on tonight, some patchy valley fog may try to form over CNY, but high clouds are expected to linger. Highs today are expected to range from the mid 60s to the low 70s, with the Wyoming Valley reaching the mid 70s. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 50s, with northern Oneida County dropping back into the mid and upper 40s. High pressure will lead to mostly dry conditions Friday. Guidance does show some moisture pushing back northward later in the day that may lead to a small chance of shower over portions of NE PA, mainly Luzerne County. Highs Friday are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM Update A portion of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will get ejected northward toward our area heading into the upcoming weekend. This will mainly be in the form of mid and high level moisture, which will bring several layers of clouds to the region Friday night with some light rain showers also possible across NE PA and perhaps the NY Southern Tier. A remnant band of mid level (700mb) moisture remains in place over the region during the day on Saturday as Helene gets captured and absorbed into the upper level low over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region. There will not be much lift, or moisture above the 700mb level...therefore expect mostly cloudy skies with a few sprinkles or light showers possible. Temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s Friday night, warming into the mid-60s to lower 70s Saturday afternoon...Syracuse, Utica and Rome will be closer to 75 where more filter sunshine is in the forecast. By Saturday night our area is still on the northern fringe of the slow moving upper level low over the Ohio Valley. This will keep skies mainly cloudy with a slight chance for a shower or two from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA; mild once again with overnight lows in the 50s to around 60. There are some model differences for Sunday, as the latest 00z GFS would bring more rain showers, perhaps even steadier rain to NE PA. Meanwhile the 00z ECMWF and latest NBM are on the drier side, with just a slight chance for a shower or two...leaned the official forecast toward the drier model solutions considering the layers of dry air and upper level sinking motion in the forecast soundings. There will still be plenty of clouds around, but perhaps some filtered sunshine also at time. Warm temperatures in the mid-60s to mid-70s expected areawide. Our area remains split between high pressure over southern New England the Ohio Valley low pressure system for Sunday night. This setup looks to keep the majority of the forecast area dry, under partly cloudy skies. Slightly cooler overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 400 AM Update This period starts off with mainly dry weather on Monday, with a mix of sun and clouds...can`t rule out a stray shower over the far western portion of the CWA as the slow moving, spinning upper level low lumbers eastward. By Monday night and Tuesday, the upper level low opens up into a trough but spreads enough deeper moisture into the forecast area to bring upper end chance PoPs (50%) for periods of rain showers. QPF amounts should be generally on the lighter side, but exact amounts are uncertain this far out in time. Additional upper level energy dives toward the region heading into midweek from the upper Great Lakes region. This will help swing a cold front through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will keep shower chances and mostly cloudy skies in the forecast through Wednesday. It will also be cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s by Wednesday. Wednesday night looks to be the coolest night of the upcoming week as a surface highs builds into the area...lows dip down into the 40s areawide. High pressure looks to finally move back over the region on Thursday, bringing a change in the weather pattern back to mostly sunny and mild weather conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A passing cold front continues to bring MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling and occasionally visby restrictions to the area, with occasional IFR restrictions as well. Brief improvement is possible late this afternoon/early evening before post frontal ceilings and fog/mist will likely result in additional restrictions, especially after midnight. Conditions return to mainly VFR by late in the TAF period (by Thursday afternoon). .Outlook... Friday through Friday afternoon...Mainly VFR. Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, but occasional rain showers may bring brief restrictions, mainly at KAVP. Tuesday...Scattered rain showers may bring occasional restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG/DK NEAR TERM...BJG/DK SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...MJM AVIATION...BJG