Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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407 FXUS61 KBGM 241055 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 655 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds, patchy fog, and spotty showers can be expected into the early morning. While much of the area will become drier by this afternoon, additional disturbances will support shower chances tonight through Thursday. The pattern will change in time for the weekend as high pressure settles back in with drier conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 420 AM Update... Cloudy skies prevail across the area this morning, with plenty of low stratus, especially across the Southern Tier into NEPA. Some light radar returns have been increasing over the past hour or so, likely just spotty drizzle which will continue off and on through about mid morning. Otherwise, while we remain in active southwesterly flow aloft, we`ll spend most of the day between upper level disturbances, and with the lack of forcing, showers will be very sparse. Rain chances will be marginally higher across western sections such as the Finger Lakes, as high pressure over New England keeps trying to filter drier air at the low levels into the eastern reaches of the CWA. Rain showers will increase again tonight as another shortwave trough rolls through the area, and a 100-knot jet streak noses into western NY. Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out either. Wednesday will likely be mostly dry to start, but with additional widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms cropping up in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 400 AM Update... A warm front looks to slowly move through the region Wednesday night through Thursday which will help trigger scattered showers. While bulk shear values are sufficient, there appears to be little in the way of instability during this time, so any thunderstorm activity is expected to be pretty isolated. Rainfall totals from Wednesday night through Thursday seem to be generally 0.50 of an inch or less looking at both the operational and ensemble guidance members, but the 00Z Euro does look to be a little more robust in comparison to the previous 12Z run with a more broad 0.50-0.75 of an inch or so over CNY with localized higher amounts near and north of the NYS Thruway. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s and low 60s. Highs Thursday are expected to be in the upper 60s and 70s, with the Wyoming Valley climbing into the upper 70s. Showers are expected to taper off during the evening hours Thursday night with lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 400 AM Update... Surface high pressure building in from the north out of Canada is expected to promote largely dry conditions over the region Friday through Monday. A cutoff low over the mid-Mississippi River Valley is expected to weaken into an open wave of low pressure and be drawn northward as an upper trough moves into the northern Great Lakes region. This would lead to a chance of showers as early as Tuesday next week. One thing that does bear watching in the longer range is the Canadian has the cutoff low stronger and it shifting north over the Ohio Valley and eventually toward our area over the weekend. Enough moisture would be drawn up from the south that could result in spotty showers Saturday-Monday. For now, NBM PoPs were capped at 20% during this time as most model solutions still favor dry conditions. Seasonable temperatures are expected with highs in the 60s and 70s through early next week and nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Plenty of cloud cover across the area this morning. Lowest ceilings are mostly across the Southern Tier and NEPA. Downsloping SE winds at ITH are contributing to VFR ceilings there, though the ceiling difference compared to nearby obs is surprisingly high... 5000 feet at ITH, and under 1500 feet at PEO and N03. Further north, VFR conditions still prevail at SYR and RME. Ceilings will gradually lift/improve through the late morning hours, with most sites improving to VFR by the afternoon. Lower clouds are expected to linger at ELM as a warm front takes shape over western NY/PA. Another round of scattered showers will move through the region late tonight, generally after 04Z, with ceilings dropping to MVFR before local midnight and fuel alt shortly after. .Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday Morning...Restrictions likely along with showers as multiple disturbances pass through the region. Embedded thunder could also occur later on Wednesday. Thursday Afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES/MDP NEAR TERM...MPH SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK AVIATION...MDP/MPH