Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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629 FXUS63 KBIS 242324 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 624 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will continue through Thursday with widespread highs in the 80s and a few 90s on Thursday. - A little cooler after Thursday but temperatures still at or above normal (in the 70s and 80s) through the weekend. - Generally dry conditions are expected through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Sunny skies continue across the forecast area early this evening, with somewhat breezy northwest winds that will be diminishing through sunset. Should be quiet overnight, although can`t totally rule out some patchy ground fog, but no mention of this in the gridded forecast at this point. No changes needed with this update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Currently, high pressure at the surface and aloft remains situated over the Northern Plains. A band of mid-level clouds tracking southeast through the mean upper flow is currently exiting the forecast area over the south central. Otherwise widespread clear skies remain across the Northern Plains and southern Prairie Provinces of Canada. Late this afternoon and tonight west to northwest winds will diminish early this evening and become light southerly overnight. Mostly clear skies are expected. Although some patchy ground fog can not be ruled out in low lying protected areas, the probability for fog overnight looks to be quite low. A warming trend continues through Wednesday and into Thursday with High temperatures mainly in the 80s Wednesday and 80s to lower 90s Thursday. Skies will remain clear to partly cloudy. Southerly winds will increase with the strongest winds on Wednesday situated over western North Dakota, shifting into central North Dakota by Thursday. Afternoon humidities are expected to fall into the teens to mid 20s over portions of western ND each afternoon, with the lowest humidities being over the far southwest, and south central. Dry conditions remain through Thursday. Beyond Thursday, temperatures drop somewhat, but remain at or above climatological normals for late September through the weekend with mostly dry conditions expected. The next chance for any precipitation via the NBM looks to be early next week as a northern stream wave tracks along the International Border. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the timing/placement of this wave which can be seen in the ensemble temperature spreads increasing quite a bit late in the weekend into early next week. Precipitation amounts also look to remain light with this wave Sunday night into Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mostly clear skies will continue, with northwest winds becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will pick up mid to late morning on Wednesday, out of the south at 15 to 20 mph. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Jones DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...Jones