Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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248 FXUS63 KBIS 250830 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will continue through Thursday with widespread highs in the 80s and a few 90s on Thursday. - Generally dry conditions, and at or above normal temperatures (broadly in the 70s and 80s) continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 High pressure can be found over the northern Plains this morning, rendering generally dry, calm, and clear conditions. Low temperatures are generally in the 50s, with a few locations dipping into the mid to upper 40s where winds have completely died out. An upper level ridge is found to the west of the forecast area, expected to move over the forecast area this afternoon. The progression of this ridge will allow for a thermal axis to penetrate far north both today and Thursday, promoting a gradual warming trend. Highs this afternoon are expected to be above seasonable normals, broadly in the upper 70s to the upper 80s. The ridge is anticipate to become positively tilted this afternoon as it runs into a flow-blocking upper level low parked over the southeastern CONUS. With a shortwave moving in along the backside of the ridge, and strengthening mid level jet developing over western Montana this afternoon, breezy south winds are expected to develop late this morning and through this evening, with speeds generally from 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph possible. Overnight into Thursday, the deepening shortwave on the backside of the ridge will push a weak cold front across the northern Plains through the afternoon, along with some scattered high level clouds over the northwest. With this cold front, winds speeds Thursday afternoon could approach 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph, over much of western and central North Dakota, with the strongest winds in the south central. Otherwise, dry and clear conditions are expected to continue over western and central North Dakota on Thursday. Moving into the weekend, near zonal flow over the northern Plains will maintain well above seasonable normal temperatures over the forecast area, with highs generally in the upper 70s to the upper 80s, while a few locations in the south may even peak into the lower 90s. With the flow-blocking upper level low lingering over the southeastern CONUS, reinforced by the remnants of the Hurricane Helene complex, generally dry conditions over the northern Plains are expected to continue though the weekend. The next chance for precipitation may present itself late Sunday as the blocking upper level low begins to be displaced by a potentially Pacific trough being progged, though ensemble confidence on timing and location remains very low at this time. For now, low PoPs (10- 20%) are found across the north Sunday night through Monday afternoon, though these are subject to change with every model run and any showers that do develop would be expected to be very light. The approach of the aforementioned Pacific trough would also promote a return to cooler temperatures, with fairly good ensemble agreement for highs back in the 60s and 70s for early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR ceilings and visibility are expected at all terminals throughout the 06Z TAF period. Generally light and variable winds will continue through the mid morning, before organizing out of the south southwest and strengthening to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and through the end of the TAF period with gusts up to 25 knots anticipated. The strongest winds will be present across the west this afternoon, before beginning to slide into central North Dakota overnight into Thursday morning. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam