Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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846 FXUS63 KBIS 241130 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A gradual warming trend is expected to start today, bringing widespread highs in the 80s and a few 90s by Thursday. - Generally dry and calm conditions are anticipated through the workweek and into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Quiet weather continues over western and central North Dakota this morning. A few mid level clouds and scattered high clouds amble along the near meridional flow over much of the forecast area, though are expected to clear out from west to east over the next few hours. Winds remain generally light, from 5 to 10 mph, and roughly out of the west. Lows this morning are broadly from the lower 40s to the lower 50s, though a few isolated locations have dipped into the upper 30s at the time of this update. No major updates to the forecast were made, as the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Near meridional flow is present over the forecast area this morning as an upper level pacific ridge begins to slide in the the southwestern CONUS over the next few days. This approaching ridge will promote generally dry conditions and a gradual warming trend through much of the workweek. For today, highs are expected to generally be in the 70s while surface high pressure building over Montana and Wyoming will promote generally clearing skies from west to east. Winds will remain northwesterly and modest, from 10 to 15 mph this afternoon, before diminishing and becoming variable this evening as we lose diurnal heating. As the transitory upper level ridge slides into the northern Plains, the gradual warming trend will continue until highs peak on Thursday, with well above normal high temperatures broadly in the 80s and even a few 90s are anticipated. Thursday also looks to be breezy to windy as a modest mid level jet moves over the northern Plains, with the ensemble currently advertising gusts up to 30 to 35 knots possible during the afternoon hours. Moving into the weekend, the ridge is then expected to diminish as stubborn upper level low is established over southeastern CONUS. While the ensemble continues to dial into a cooling trend through the weekend and into next week, it becomes increasing discordant during this period. Two broad scenarios exist, one "dry" and one "wet". The dry solution is the majority solution, with around 60% of membership buy in. In this scenario, persist ridging in the southeastern CONUS and keeps a series of shortwaves well to the north of the northern Plains, and thus we remain fairly dry through the weekend. The minority "wet" solution has around 40% member buy in, and instead champions broad pacific troughing making landfall in the Pacific Northwest on Saturday, and then bringing widespread showers to North Dakota through Sunday and into Monday next week. As it stands, the NBM has begun to advertise low chances (10 to 20 percent) for rain moving in the northwest late Sunday, before spreading over much of central North Dakota through late Monday. In either scenario, the cooling trend through the weekend with bring a return to more seasonable temperatures, with highs broadly in the 60s, by early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR ceilings and visibility are expected at all terminals throughout the 12Z TAF period. Near westerly winds this morning will somewhat strengthen and become northwesterly this afternoon, with speeds from 10 to 15 knots, before diminishing and becoming southerly overnight and into Wednesday morning. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam