588
FXUS63 KBIS 261411
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
911 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected today
  across portions of western and central North Dakota.

- Breezy to windy conditions expected today, with some central
  and southwestern areas seeing high temperatures near 90
  degrees.

- Above average temperatures and mainly dry conditions continue
  through the weekend, with breezy winds possibly returning on
  Sunday into early next week.

- Temperatures turn cooler early to mid next week. Low
  temperatures could dip into the mid 30s to mid 40s, with
  highs forecast in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The cold front continues to move eastward across eastern Montana
moving into western North Dakota later this morning. Windy
southerly winds will continue ahead of the front, but a strong
capping inversion will hinder the strongest winds from mixing
down to the surface. Near critical fire weather conditions are
still possible across much of western and south central North
Dakota due to gusty winds and dry conditions.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Limited updates needed at this time as the forecast remains on
track. A steady south wind has already developed for some
central and eastern areas. This may impact low temperatures this
morning, perhaps bringing slightly warmer temperatures compared
to current forecast lows. Otherwise, look for mainly clear
skies today, with breezy to windy conditions at times.
Temperatures are still expected be quite warm today, with highs
in the 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

A surface low will push across the state today. The resultant
gradient will bring strong southerly winds to start, warming
temperatures into the 80s to lower 90s. Some areas could even
see mid 90s today, which may approach some record highs. Later
this morning and through this afternoon, a mainly dry cold front
will push from west to east. This will switch winds to the
northwest and could also be breezy to windy at times. Blended in
90th percentile NBM winds for this afternoon which does bring
some sustained winds in the Wind Advisory Category. Warming
aloft could limit how much wind may mix down to the surface,
thus limiting gusts. Given this uncertainty held off on any wind
highlights for now. This wind combined with low RH from warm
temperatures could bring some near critical fire weather
conditions today. Uncertainties in fuels and timing of strongest
winds with the lowest RH have provided for holding off on any
fire weather products. See the Fire Weather Discussion for more
details. A surface high follows the passage of this cold front
tonight diminishing strong winds. This will keep conditions dry,
and lower temperatures into the 40s to lower 50s for lows. High
pressure with zonal flow aloft then remains in the area for
Friday and Saturday. Temperatures may cool slightly as a result,
although will still be above normal in the 70s and 80s. Winds
will not be as breezy, although RH values could remain in the
20s and 30s each day. Dry conditions and mainly clear skies can
also be expected. Another surface low could then set up across
MT for Sunday, bringing a strong southerly gradient to the
state. This could bring breezy to windy southerly winds and
temperatures perhaps warming back into the upper 80s to lower
90s. These winds combined with lower RH values could bring the
next day to monitor for near critical fire weather conditions.
Mainly dry conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday.

Sunday night into Monday, a broad trough could bring a cold
front across the area. Depending on moisture, there could be a
few rain showers across the north. Breezy to windy conditions
are also possible through Monday. Temperatures are expected to
cool, with highs on Monday forecast in the upper 50s to upper
60s. Surface high could then linger across the region Tuesday,
with northwest flow aloft. Breezy winds could continue along
with cooler temperatures. Current forecast lows on Tuesday
morning could be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. If this holds this
could lead to some areas of frost, especially in the north and
west. Perhaps some brief ridging comes in mid next week as
hinted by current cluster analysis. Morning lows could still be
cool, however, daytime highs may warm slightly back to near
normal levels. Mainly dry conditions are also expected to
continue into mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Low-level wind shear will be found across most TAF sites to
start the forecast, coming to an end mid to late hours this
morning hours as winds increase. Breezy to windy southerly
winds will then be found today until a cold front moves across
the state from west to east and brings breezy to windy west to
northwest winds. Winds then diminish tonight, perhaps going
light and variable for some areas. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and
VFR conditions are throughout the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thur Sep 26 2024

Overall near critical fire weather conditions are expected
across portions of western and central North Dakota today.
Uncertainties in fuels and timing of winds with the lowest
relative humidity have contributed to holding off on Red Flag
Warnings at this time.

Strong southerly flow will bring warming temperatures in the
80s to lower 90s today. These warm temperatures will drop
relative humidity values into the 20s west to 30s east. A dry
cold front will then push across the state from west to east
today. Shifting a strong southerly wind to a strong
northwesterly wind. These strong winds combined with lower
relative humidity values will create near critical fire weather
conditions today. The holding off of a Red Flag Warning comes
mainly from uncertainties in fuels. In addition, the strongest
winds today will generally be in the east, where relative
humidity will be in the 30s. Some strong winds could also
accompany the cold front passage, especially in the northwest.
Thus the western and some southern areas would be the higher
areas of concern today, although most of the CWA has strong
enough winds and low enough relative humidity values to message
widespread near critical fire weather concerns. Winds look to
diminish quickly tonight, with humidity recoveries 60 to 80
percent.

Of note are above average temperatures expected through the
weekend. These could bring continued low relative humidity
values in the 20s west to 30s east through the weekend. Sunday
could see more increased winds to go with these lower humidity
values. This may need to be monitored for the potential return
of near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Johnson
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin
FIRE WEATHER...Anglin